Randolph Macon Academy (4-4) at Covenant (4-5), Thursday 3:30 p.m.
The basics: Covenant was awfully close to pulling off a road win against North Cross and locking up a playoff spot last week, but an injury to quarterback John Huemme and circumstance prevented that win from happening. But the Eagles still control their own destiny. Win, and Covenant is in for the first time since 2008. Lose, and the winner of the VES Christchurch or Greenbrier Christian gets in. The Eagles played like the playoffs were on the line last week and came up just a little short. If they bring the same kind of focus and effort this week they could extend their season in Dave Hart’s second year as head coach.
Key matchup: RMA’s defensive line takes on Covenant’s John Huemme. Huemme was knocked out of the North Cross game, but if he returns he could give the Jackets fits with the option, which could end up being a tough draw for Randolph Macon as it requires a lot of drilling and responsibility football to stop. If Huemme can’t go, Luke Sorenson could get the nod, which would put more of the load on Covenant’s other backs.
Who to watch: Covenant’s Rick Weaver. The Eagles’ big freshman rushed 308 yards and three touchdowns last week on the road against North Cross, high fourth straight 100-yard game on the ground. Look for Covenant to try and get Weaver going early against RMA and take the ball out of the Jackets’ hands.
The line: Covenant by 7. The Eagles win and find their first playoff berth since the Mark Sanford era ended.
Albemarle (6-3) at Western Albemarle (8-1), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: We usually see this rivalry quite a bit earlier in the season, but a big tilt like this right before the playoffs seems like a strong way to finish the Jefferson District slate. Without Albemarle’s loss last week against Monticello, this would’ve been unquestionably the biggest local game of the year, but the Patriots’ defeat at the hands of the Mustangs took a little bit of the luster off this contest. Still, this one is almost always close, with a grand total of 18 point separating the squads in the last four meetings with Western winning all four. The Patriots will be looking for their first victory over the Warriors since 2010 when Albemarle gutted out a 15-6 win in former coach Mike Alley’s home debut. The big question that remains is how quickly they can bounce back from a flat performance against Monticello where an attacking Mustangs defense that had just lost to a Louisa team Albemarle beat earlier this year took it to the Patriots. Western has had chance to pick up a pair of rivalry wins her while they heal up. Are they ready to find that playoff-level pace and mentality and potentially slide into the No. 1 slot in Region 3A West with a little help from other results?
Key matchup: Western’s offense takes on the Patriots’ stingy defense. This is strength on strength here as the Warriors’ array of weapons takes on an Albemarle squad that gives up just 15.2 points and 173.1 yards of total offense per contest. That’s stout. The Warriors, will have their hands full. If Western gets Sam Hearn back in the fold at quarterback and flexes Henry Kreienbaum back to wideout, it obviously opens things up, though the Warriors proved capable of winning games with Hearn out the last two weeks against Fluvanna and Charlottesville. This is the final tuneup before the playoffs though, senior night and a rivalry game, so if Hearn can play, odds are good he’ll play. While the Patriots have faced some talented quarterbacks this year like Quishon Calfee of Patrick Henry, Hearn presents a host of problems with his arm and his legs. Then there’s the bell-cow running back Oliver Herndon and his 1,336 yards and 17 touchdowns. It’s a lot of offense that can adapt on the fly. If Albemarle lets the Warriors get into a rhythm it could quickly turn into a long night.
Who to watch: Albemarle’s seniors. While the Patriots still have the playoffs to look forward to, they could both greatly improve their playoff chances with a win here and avoid the stigma of being the second straight class of seniors to graduate without having beaten Western. There’s a lot of pride and honor on the line for that group of Patriots. As sophomores and juniors they’ve only lost two rivalry clashes by a total of eight points to the Warriors. Can that group rise up and end the Warriors’ four-year run in the rivalry?
The line: Western by 7. Too much offense for the Warriors to fall in this one, but these are almost always close.
St. Anne’s-Belfield (6-2) at Blue Ridge (7-1), Saturday 2 p.m.
The basics: This is the first installment a two-game series. No matter who wins Saturday, both squads will run it back and play again next week in the VISAA Division II state semifinals. Which makes the strategy component particularly interesting. Do you hold anything back because you’ll definitely be playing this squad again next week? Do you go all out and hope to grab another home game and perhaps a more comfortable situation for the state semis? A lot of question marks for one of the area’s longest running private school rivalries. A quick history lesson — in the last 12 meetings of this rivalry, including 2007 when they played twice just like they’re going to do this year, St. Anne’s-Belfield has won 10 of the 12 clashes, with a two-game sweep in 2007. The Barons’ most recent win came in 2012 during Blue Ridge’s state title run and STAB’s campaign-that-shall-not-be-named (the Saints went 0-10). So no, it isn’t unheard of for the Barons to beat STAB, but it hasn’t happened particularly often in the last decade. This might be one of those years though as Blue Ridge has the steadying presence of Justin Armwood at quarterback, a playmaker in Malik Johnson that nobody has found much of an answer for and a defense that’s surrendering just 14.1 points per game despite an offense that scores quickly and often to the tune of 45.5 points per game and gives opposing squads more chances than normal offensively. Of course, STAB counters with the emergence of Jalen Harrison at quarterback, Kareem Johnson’s presence in all three phases of the game and Campbell Miller’s pass catching ability, as well as a solid record against a schedule that’s a little tougher than Blue Ridge’s has proven to be. The bottom line is this one should be fun and we already know we’re getting an encore, which is a nice bonus.
Key matchup: STAB’s secondary matches up with Blue Ridge’s array of wideouts. The Barons are at their best when they’re moving the ball on the ground, but they can and will try to get a dizzying array of pass catchers involved, whether it’s Jemeil King, Aaron Brown or Johnson who’ve all scored multiple touchdowns on catches this year. That’ll in turn open up some opportunities for players like Kareem Johnson to make a big play or two as he roams the back end of the defense.
Who to watch: The trenches. While both teams boast several dynamic playmakers at the skill spots, this one will likely come down to which teams’ group of linemen meets the challenge. Both squads have a limited number of lineman which means a fair amount of time on both sides of the ball for the big guys and not many breaks with few substitute options. Whichever offensive line can open things up for their running back and play the same way they did in the first quarter in the fourth quarter will have a huge advantage.
The line: STAB by 1. History leans toward the Saints, but this one is wide open as the squads battle it out for a home game in the state semis.
Orange County (5-4) at Fluvanna County (0-9), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: While the Hornets have cooled off of late after a red-hot start, there’s no denying that this has been an incredible year. To go from 1-9 to a playoff spot is incredible. In fact, it’s exactly the kind of turnaround that Fluvanna has been hoping for the last few years. A win over the Flucos would lock up a record north of .500 no matter what happens in the playoffs for Orange. Fluvanna has struggled against the run throughout the year and now the power-run Hornets come to Palmyra looking to build a little momentum heading into the playoffs after falling to Louisa County in a rivalry clash. Can Orange County find its stride again in time for the postseason?
Key matchup: Fluvanna’s front seven takes on Orange’s physical ground attack. The Hornets don’t have a lot of mystery surrounding their offense — the rushing attack is coming right at you and is going to force you to make tackles. Tre Smith has been carrying the load of late and if Fluvanna can’t find a way to tackle Smith before he builds up a head of steam it could be a long night for the defense.
Who to watch: Fluvanna’s Jay Amos. Amos is the Flucos’ best bet to find the end zone as he’s scored nine times this year while also taking care of the football–on his 42 touches on the year he hasn’t fumbled once. Can Fluvanna get him involved enough early on to put some pressure on the Hornets?
The line: Orange by 21. The Hornets get on track before the playoffs and build some momentum.
Nelson County (1-8) at Gretna (4-5), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Another year of the Mark Poston’s multi-pronged, long-term rebuilding effort at Nelson County is about to come to close, and while the Governors haven’t piled up wins they’ve made some clear improvements and taken a step forward as a program. This week they face traditional Dogwood power Gretna who ended a three game skid with a win over Altavista last week. Can Nelson build a little more momentum heading into the offseason with a road trip in the season finale?
Key matchup: Nelson takes on Gretna’s Chris Hall. Hall scored a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter last week and finished with three in the win over Altavista. The dynamic, verstile weapon has to be accounted for on every play.
Who to watch: Nelson’s seniors. This group’s contributions may not be recognized for years to come but they’ve started to lay the foundation for a turnaround, enduring the growing pains, hard work and a lack of immediate satisfaction that often come with revitalizing a program.
The line: Gretna by 21. Hawks roll here over the Governors.
Fork Union (4-5) at Woodberry Forest (7-2), 2:30 p.m.
The basics: The Blue Devils ran into the top-ranked team in the state on the road in Benedictine and fell 44-14. Just one week prior the Tigers handed that same Benedictine a 34-27 loss, the Cadets lone loss of the year. Last week Woodberry dispatched St. Christopher’s 49-14. The Prep League title is on the line here, and a win against FUMA would give Woodberry its third in as many years and their sixth in seven years. With the Blue Devils out of the playoff scenario and the Tigers not competing in the playoffs as they instead chose to play in “The Game” ever year to end their season against Episcopal, this has a good bit going for it as FUMA would love to help spoil the Woodberry’s title by handing them their first Prep League loss and grabbing the title for themselves as the Blue Devils are also unbeaten in league play.
Key matchup: The Tigers’ front seven against the Blue Devils rushing attack. For Fork Union to win this game, Woodberry quarterback Lindell Stone has to be on the sidelines for as much of the game as possible. The Tigers’ receivers over-match the Blue Devils’ secondary and pass rush. The best way to keep an explosive offense off the field is to chew through clock with your own. Expect FUMA to try and chew up first downs and get the job done on the ground with Adisa Gittens-Smith, Iosefa Puaauli, Taurus Carroll, whoever it takes. This Tigers defensive front has had its moments against the run, Bishop McNamara and Liberty Christian standing out in particular. This is their chance to quell the notion (although we’re not buying into it) that this Tigers defense is somehow less dominant than usual as other various media outlets have suggested in the last nine weeks.
Who to watch: Woodberry Forest’s Jameel Wilson. The Tigers sophomore running back had a breakout performance in the season opener. He got hurt and since then the load has largely rested on Evans Riviere, a physical runner. When the Tigers have and use Wilson as a change of pace back, they have yet another weapon in their back pocket. Wilson is elusive, hard to find, and lightning quick when in space. Between Riviere and Wilson, Woodberry has one Tiger going this way, the other Tiger going the other way and Stone is saying, “Whadda ya want from me?” If you’re Woodberry, just a little bit of the same old would do the trick. A full fledged rushing attack should open the door for Stone to at least try and meet his average of 325.9 passing yards and 3.5 TD’s per game.
The line: The Tigers have too much offense, defense answers the call. Woodberry by 18.
Prince Edward (3-6) at Buckingham (8-1), 7 p.m.
The basics: Okay, so the Eagles found a way to put up 41, but in a loss to Goochland on Monday. Now they’ll play a second game in five days against a power running squad. The Knights are coming of another blowout win, 55-13 over Randolph-Henry. It’s the third straight win of 29 points or more and the eighth in seven games with the 35-21 win over Goochland being the closest a team has come to beating Buckingham since week one. Think about that for a second.
Key matchup: It’s as simple as this, Prince Edward’s front nine against Buckingham’s Leon Ragland. It’s obvious to everyone every week. We try and point to other things in the game for variety’s sake, but really, unless you hold Ragland to under 200-yards and three TD’s, you’re not going to win. But as we’ve pointed out before, getting to Ragland is the problem. This offensive line is in such a groove and Ragland’s so versatile as a quick but physical back that he’s mowing down defenses before they even get a chance to breath, adjust. Prince Edward has to be perfect up front or it’ll just be more of the same for the Knights. If Goochland put up 61 on the Eagles last week, the Knights are likely capable of reaching that number and more, if the clock will allow them.
Who to watch: Buckingham’s linebacking corps. The Knights are great up front, on offense and defense with some of the same names working both ways. But what might be lost this year are the Hunter Edwards’ of this defense, the Erik Companion’s and Daniel Brickhill’s who’ve done a nice job of adjusting to the various attacks that the James River District opponents throw Buckingham’s way. Michael Mabry and the defensive line lead the attack for this defense, but this line backing corps deserves credit, deserves to be watched closely with the playoffs looming.
The line: Buckingham by 20. The Knights continue to roll downhill and head into the playoffs on a 9-game winning streak — the longest streak for this team since they won out in the regular season back in 2009.
Clarke County (8-1) at Madison County (2-7), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Eagles come in winners of seven straight after smacking Warren County 55-0. The Mountaineers fell on the road to George Mason 42-27. While it was good to see that Madison found some offense in the loss after a flat week in a loss to Strasburg, the last team the Mountaineers would like to see right now is this Clarke team — a true state title contender, one of the favorites at that.
Key matchup: Madison’s front seven against Clarke’s vaunted rushing attack. Whether it’s Jordan Turner or Hunter Rogers (back healthy), the Eagles have their options and a big physical offensive line paving the way. The Mountaineers’ struggles against the run are no secret, but they have to find a way to meet the challenge up front to avoid the Eagles running away with things early. That means filling the gaps upfront on the line and then getting the linebackers to bring down either of these tough Eagles runners. Much easier said than done, and so far only Millbrook can claim they’ve been able to even come close to doing so.
Who to watch: Madison’s Isiah Smith. Maybe he can muster up one of those big play games earlier in the year, maybe he can find away to break off enough big plays to make this game interesting. Smith continues to be Madison’s most valuable player on offense with 834 yards rushing, 339 receiving and 12 TD’s overall. It’s obvious the Mountaineers need to get him the ball, they also need to find a way to do it in space so that Smith can do what he does best and that’s make people miss.
The line: Clarke by 20. This defense has allowed one touchdown the last two weeks and outscored opponents 127-6 in that stretch. Tough matchup for anyone, Madison or not.
Monticello (6-3) at Powhatan (4-5), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Mustangs had it all going for them in their home finale against Albemarle, as they posted their first ever shutout against the Patriots, 26-0 last week. It was an inspired performance, a much needed one after the humbling loss to Louisa the week before. Monticello has won four of five and sits poised for a good matchup in the first round of the Region 3A West playoffs with a win over the Indians. Powhatan is coming off a 63-13 win over Fluvanna County and would love to play spoiler against Monticello. This is one of the more underrated rivalries in the Jefferson District as these two programs have gone back-and-forth since the Indians joined up in 2011. Powhatan has just two JD wins has been far more competitive than their district record suggest as they played Orange, Louisa, Albemarle and Western closely.
Key matchup: Powhatan’s pass rush against Monticello quarterback Kevin Jarrell. Last week Albemarle saw what Jarrell is capable with his arm and his legs when the opportunities present themselves. Jarrell would like to throw down field to his talented receiving corps, but is also capable of breaking off big runs and avoiding the sack. The Indians can’t let him be comfortable, because when he is, the Mustangs roll.
Who to watch: Monticello’s front eight. Their 3-5-3 defense looked almost perfect against Albemarle last week. They were heavy on the rush and gave up next to nothing on the ground. Powhatan would like to come at them with their usual power rushing attack, but injuries have really bitten the Indians so far in that department. With quarterback Peyton Mawyer, they’ve tried to pick up the slack in the passing game. Given that Albemarle tried to be balanced last week and struggled against the constant blitz, it will be interesting to see not only how Powhatan approaches this game offensively play calling wise, but also if Monticello simply throws out what it did last week and wait to have to make adjustments. Why not? They looked awfully good. Maybe the Louisa game was an anomaly. This game should give us all a better look into that.
The line: Monticello by 7. Winning on the road isn’t easy, but the Mustangs have the tools offensively and on special teams (vastly underrated at this time of the year, by the way). The Indians aren’t quite the team they were in September, but still well-coached and a tough out nonetheless, especially at home.
Strasburg (5-4) at William Monroe (1-8), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: After two shutout losses to Mason and Clarke, the Rams are winners of two of their last three. They last last week to Central 27-6, so the jury is out as to what team is coming to Stanardsville. Monroe fell to a good Culpeper team on the road 35-14 last week. Both teams are hard to judge and that makes this one interesting. The Dragons are obviously playing for next year while Strasburg is in the thick of the playoffs trying to solidify a better Region 2A East matchup, as they currently sit 11th.
Key matchup: Strasburg’s rushing defense against Monroe’s Malik Mallory. Last week Central running back Hank Hoover went off for 247 yards on 31 attempts. So the Rams’ rush defense obviously has it’s issues. Monroe wants to get downhill with Mallory and mix in its other options, even open things up for Greg Sizemore, and Malique Shackleford if it can. The Rams have to be ready to make tackles low as this Monroe rushing attack runs north-south and is a load to stop when it gets its openings.
Who to watch: Monroe’s Anthony Pritchett. One of the Dragons top receiving threats could be the beneficiary of a defense that sells out hard to the run. Shackleford has a good arm and deep passes off of play-action could set up Monroe for some big plays. But that’s all dependent on Monroe’s rushing attack getting the job done early and often.
The line: Monroe by 3. There’s no reason the Dragons can’t win this game. If they show up on defense, they will. They have the offense to edge Strasburg.
Charlottesville (3-6) at Louisa County (5-4), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Black Knights are coming off 30-13 loss where they played Western Albemarle very close, closer than most of the Jefferson District has been able to. The Lions took care of business against arch-rival Orange County to maintain a near decade long tenure of that Gordonsville Tastee-Freeze. Louisa is battling for playoff position. Charlottesville is young and looking to build for next year. Two good defenses here. Two run-heavy teams. Expect a defacto running game clock and a great physical football game.
Key matchup: Louisa County’s secondary against Deandre Bryant. When you have two teams so eager to put together long drives on the ground, the obvious question is which team will go to the air for the big play. Charlottesville is the obvious answer and Rahkeem Davis to Bryant is not new to the CHS playbook. The Black Knights are going to go deep when they can because they can. Will Louisa’s secondary be ready? Can Charlottesville capitalize with its advantage in the passing department?
Who to watch: Louisa’s Job Whalen and Charlottesville Rashad Brock. Whalen is just fun to watch, particularly when he gets to carry the work load. He’s been lucky that he’s had help to keep some wear and tear off of him as of late since the Lions backfield has developed depth in the second half of the season. Brock is a senior playing in his last game. Last year he battled injuries. This year he’s battled touches as the Black Knights have had to spread the ball around in their triple option. We’d love to see workhorse vs. workhorse here with Whalen and Brock having themselves a duel of hard yards won.
The line: The Lions by 3. It’s the Jungle finale with the Lions on the road for the playoffs, so they’ll try to send off their fans with a big win. That and the fact that this team is one of the better 5-4 teams on paper that we’ve seen in the last few years.
