Goochland (4-3) at Louisa County (7-0) 7:30 p.m.
The Basics: Goochland more than shook the monkey off its back last week, it threw it off a cliff. The Bulldogs still have a good shot to get back to the postseason, and a win against the top team in the Jefferson District would net a lot points. The Lions will look to avenge last year’s loss to Goochland, a game in which mental mistakes accounted for a lot of points that were left on the field.
Key matchup: Goochland lineman Trevor Jenkins versus Louisa lineman J.D. Dennis. This is a classic battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Both teams want to impose their will by running the ball and that means that offensive lines have to get down field. Whoever does more pancaking, Dennis or Jenkins, gives his respective team a major edge.
Player to watch for: Lions receiver Raheem Johnson. He may only have four receptions this year, but all four have been touchdowns. With two teams intent on pounding the rock, a big play from quarterback Kire Worley to ‘Peanut’ could be the difference in this game.
Line: Louisa by 4. Lions hold serve at home with its experienced defense slowing down the Goochland runners.
STAB (6-1) at Covenant (1-6) 4 p.m.
The Basics: This crosstown grudge match has seen its share of excitement over the last three years. Back in 2008, the teams’ postseason matchup decided who’d go to the state final. Last year, the Eagles rallied late with Chris Shifflett running the wildcat but fell short. Now, Covenant is struggling to find its way while STAB has stumbled just once, against Collegiate last week. What doesn’t change is that St. Anne’s continues to own the schools’ series, and if Covenant is going to end that dominance, they’ll need their best effort of the year — by a long shot.
Key matchup: Covenant’s interior line takes on STAB’s linebackers. Few teams have been able to contain Shane Palmateer and Brandon Spitzer — or even slow them down a little. The Eagles must protect quarterback Lee Coppock and the running game if Covenant is going to hang with the Saints.
Player to watch: STAB’s Branford Rogers. The Saints will be fine if Rogers, who was injured last week against Collegiate, can’t go, but the star tailback sure helps the cause.
Line: STAB by 14. The Saints should bounce back against a Covenant squad that will likely struggle to block the St. Anne’s front seven.
Randolph-Henry (4-3) at Buckingham (7-0) 7 p.m.
The Basics: When Buckingham’s Taylor Boyers graduated, it was the general perception that the Knights might not be able to replicate last year’s 10-0 regular season, but behind a stingy defense and Maurice Taylor’s legs, the Knights are in position to do just that over the next three games. Randolph-Henry’s narrow loss to Altavista in late September indicates that the Statesmen could challenge the Knights, but at home Buckingham should be able to take care of business.
Key matchup: It’s the same story every week—Randolph-Henry’s front seven takes on Buckingham’s Maurice Taylor. Taylor’s assault on opposing defenses continued last week with a 302-yard, four touchdown performance. What’s next for the star running back?
Player to watch: Buckingham quarterback Tarian Ayers. Ayers didn’t return to last week’s romp over Cumberland after leaving with an injury, putting Cam Johnson behind center. As the playoffs draw closer, Buckingham will want Ayers’ steady experienced hand in the lineup.
Line: Buckingham by 14. The Knights roll in this one and stay unbeaten.
Nelson County (0-6) at Appomattox (4-3) 7 p.m.
The Basics: If Nelson County can just find a way to slow down an opposing offense, the Governors could probably end their slide. But they’ve surrendered more than 40 points in five straight games, and an answer continues to elude Nelson. Appomattox played unbeaten Buckingham tough back in August, and the Raiders will likely provide Nelson another stiff road test. Appomattox is on a mission too, as the squad needs to win out most likely to grab a playoff spot.
Key matchup: Nelson’s front seven take son Appomattox’s run-oriented attack. Expect a heavy dose of Appomattox’s Clarence Copeland, who ran for 90 yards in last week’s loss to Altavista.
Player to watch: Nelson’s James Saunders. The quarterback put together one of Central Virginia’s biggest games of the season last week with a 353-yard assault against Dan River. Can he replicate that performance against the Raiders?
Line: Appomattox by 7.
Stafford (4-3) at Albemarle (3-4) 7 p.m.
The Basics: The Patriots have proven this season they’re not going to be an easy out for anyone but the brutality of the Commonwealth District schedule will still likely take its toll on the Patriots as the imposing, physical squads keep coming. After an 0-2 start, Stafford has rebounded and jumped out to a 3-1 record in the Commonwealth including a thrilling 17-16 victory over archrival North Stafford last week.
Key matchup: Stafford’s toughness takes on Albemarle’s toughness. Yes, it’s a little bit abstract, but both these teams are outgained or undermaned in a lot of games but still find ways to win. Stafford was outgained by 147 yards against North Stafford, but still managed a win. This one might come down to who’s tougher, who’s more resilient and who makes a big play or two to turn the tide.
Player to watch: Stafford’s Nehemiah Jones. The running back piled up 143 yards and four touchdowns two weeks ago and led the Indians again in the win over NSHS last Friday. Albemarle has to contain him to slow down Stafford’s offense.
Line: Stafford by 3. Albemarle ended its losing streak in the district two weeks ago, but Stafford has looked solid of late and should be primed to grab the road win.
George Mason (1-6) at Madison County (5-1) 7:30 p.m.
The Basics: Bull Run play officially opens for the Mountaineers this week as they welcome in a reeling Mason squad that’s coming off a 34-0 loss to Clarke County this week. Madison was off last week but has won its last four games and has only allowed two touchdowns in their last two games. Each win moves Madison closer to earning a return trip to the Region B playoffs.
Key matchup: The Mustangs’ defensive backs vs. the deep ball. With the way the Mountaineers have played lately, you can pick out any area of the game that Mustangs have to focus on because Madison’s that balanced on offense and defense right now. But there’s no question that if Mason doesn’t keep a watch on the Dustin Farmer to Travis Warren or Rashad Bolden bomb, this game will be a lot longer than it needs to be.
Player to watch for: Madison’s linebacker J.P. Utz. The Mountaineers already have tackling machines in seniors Bradley Meadows and Terez Terrell. With Utz, this defense has yet another defender, and an up and comer, that knows how to wrap up a body. The sophomore is averaging 8.4 tackles per game.
Line: Madison by 17. Mountaineers open up BR play with a big win.
William Monroe at Western Albemarle 7:30 p.m.
The Basics: It’s hardly possible for two teams to be coming into a game wth more opposite momentum swings. The Dragons fell to Fluvanna and then dropped another contest to Orange and the Hornets’ explosive attack. Western, on the other hand, is riding high after righting the ship against Charlottesville before exploding past Monticello on the road last Friday.
Key matchup: Monroe’s defensive backs take on Western’s tall deep threat, Jake Nidiffer. Nidiffer hauled in two touchdown passes last week in the Monticello win, and he goes up like a power forward grabbing a rebound to get them, which makes sense since he’s an important part of the Warriors’ basketball plans this winter..
Player to watch: Monroe’s Mitchell Morris. He’s playing through an injured hand, but Morris is still a key part of the Dragons’ offense. He’ll need a big time game to knock off the surging Warriors.
Line: Western by 3. A week ago, this looked like the Dragons would pick up the win here, and there’s a chance the Warriors play more like three weeks ago Friday night, but their win over Monticello appears to have changed the season’s trajectory.
Fluvanna County (3-4) at Orange County (4-3) 7:30 p.m.
The Basics: After winning a thriller against William Monroe, Fluvanna ran into Goochland at the wrong time last week. The Bulldogs took out two weeks of aggression from tough losses to Orange County and Monticello on the Flucos. Last week Orange rebounded from a defeat at the hands of Louisa with a thumping of William Monroe. This is a must win for both squads if they want to qualify for the playoffs.
Key matchup: Fluvanna’s front seven against Orange running back Tyrone Ellis. The Hornets make it tough on teams as it is with the athletes they spread across the field, but Ellis has made it even tougher with his ability to cutback and gash opposing defense’s for big time runs. The Flucos need to keep an eye on that just as much as Orange’s gifted set of receivers.
Player to watch for: Orange’s Isaiah Ferguson. The freshman has made a huge impact for the Hornets on special teams and has no trouble taking kickoffs 99 yards to the house. It’ll be interesting to see how Ferguson finishes up these last three regular season games. It’s quite possible that Orange has found its next playmaker.
Line: The Hornets by 9. Orange’s offense paves the way.
Fork Union (2-4) at Collegiate (4-2) 3:30 p.m.
The Basics: These two squads met twice last season with the Cougars pulling away in the fourth quarter from the Blue Devils in both the regular season and playoffs. But there’s no Jake McGee for Collegiate under center this year to spearhead late game heroics. The Cougars took down unbeaten St. Anne’s-Belfield last week by one score while FUMA’s fourth quarter rally against top-ranked Liberty Christian fell short. Fork Union has to come up with a road victory here to maintain pace for the post season as they currently sit sixth in the VISAA Division 1 poll. Topping No. 3 Collegiate is a perfect way to do just that.
Key matchup: Fork Union’s pass rush against quarterback Wilson Speight. The Blue Devils know exactly what’s coming. Speight is going to fling the ball around in Collegiate’s four and five receiver sets. FUMA’s got the athletes in the secondary to provide adequate coverage, but okay coverage becomes great coverage when a quarterback is running for his life.
Player to watch for: Fork Union’s Quadariis Newkirk. With Nick Naimool no longer in the mix for the Blue Devils, Newkirk has stepped up nicely as a receiver. Last week the sophomore caught six passes for 135 yards against LCA and gives FUMA the passing they threat they need to keep Collegiate from just stacking the tackle box.
Line: Fork Union by 3. This is not the same Collegiate squad that won a state title last year. The Blue Devils keep their playoff hopes alive.
Charlottesville (0-7) at Monticello (4-3) 7:30 p.m.
The Basics: No team in the Jefferson District has the Jekyll and Hyde act down quite like the Mustangs. After an absolute theft of a win against Goochland, Monticello suffered a major let down against Western Albemarle at home as it could not get the Warriors’ offense off the field. What team will we see line up against Charlottesville, the fourth quarter squad that rallied past Goochland or the deflated team that fell to Western? The winless Black Knights come into this game looking for ways to build for next season. A competitive showing against the Mustangs would go a long ways for this team’s morale.
Key matchup: Charlottesville’s front seven against Monticello running back Jesse Ayres. The Black Knights defensive front has to slow down the bruising Mustangs runner. If Ayres hits the next level with a full head of steam he’s a wrecking ball and off to the endzone. The senior is going to be looking to have a better day than his 28-carry 162-yard performance against Western and that’s saying something.
Player to watch for: Ayres. The running back is a little more than 1,700 yards away from breaking Takeem Hedgeman’s school and Central Virginia rushing record, and unless the Mustangs go deep into the postseason like they did with Hedgeman in 2007, that record is out of reach. There are three regular season games at the minimum for Ayres and second place in Monticello history is 933 yards away. Can Ayres edge his brother’s 2006 season for the number two spot? A monster game against the Black Knights would go a long way.
Line: Monticello by 14. The Mustangs land on their feet and get ready for a huge showdown with Louisa County.
Benedictine (4-3) at Woodberry Forest (5-1) 2 p.m. Saturday
The Basics: The Tigers have proven they can win they dominate and win when it’s close. After last week they’ve proven they can win when they’re trailing. By 14. With six minutes to play. Woodberry got big plays out of C.J. Prosise and Carlson Milikin late to knock off Landon and move to 5-1. Now they’ll host Benedictine, a team that’s had an up and down year so far and has a brutal finish to their schedule with Woodberry, Fork Union and LCA. Benedictine has developed a pass-oriented attack, but challenging a Woodberry secondary that’s led by J.T. Hornyak, Prosise and Milikin might not be prudent.
Key matchup: Benedictine’s kick coverage units against the Woodberry return game. Head coach Clint Alexander is back coaching special teams this year and it’s clearly having an impact. A big punt return for a touchdown by Milikin sparked the Tigers to the victory over Landon last week and all three of those players in the secondary — Hornyak, Prosise and Milikin — are a threat to take it to the house.
Player to watch: Woodberry’s Heys McMath. McMath is quietly developing into a solid quarterback, and one that’s adept at coming up with big time plays, like the 15-yard toss to Prosise last week. The Tigers are still run first, but McMath makes defenses stay honest against the Woodberry rushing attack.
Line: Woodberry by 17. The Tigers should roll here as the game’s matchups play right into Woodberry’s strengths.
Virginia Episcopal (4-3) at Blue Ridge (4-3) Saturday 2 p.m.
The Basics: The Barons dropped their first Old Dominion Football Conference game of the year in the final minutes of their road contest against Christchurch. Before the loss, the Barons had won three straight games by double-digits. Last week the Bishops held off Covenant at home after falling into a big hole early on the arm and legs of two-way quarterback Daniel Alexander.
Key matchup: Blue Ridge’s linebacking corps against Alexander. The Barons need to make Alexander a one-dimmensional player. VES’s defense has struggled mightily, so if the Barons contain the Bishops’ quarterback, Blue Ridge should be able to handle business without getting to messy.
Player to watch for: Blue Ridge’s Jerrod Williams. The VES secondary is vulnerable and Williams is averaging a little more than 20 yards per reception. It could be a big day for he and quarterback Andre Roberts.
Line: Barons by 10. Blue Ridge’s offense goes nuts and leads the way to a double-digit win.
