Albemarle (4-3) at Monticello (7-0), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Patriots played in a third straight one-possession game, and came up with a second straight win by beating Charlottesville 21-13. The Mustangs came from behind to take command of the Jefferson District by taking down unbeaten Western Albemarle, 31-21. While the meeting between Monticello and Western was arguably a defacto Jefferson District title game, this is the wild-card game. Albemarle played Monticello down to the wire last year and a win here would shake up the playoff positioning greatly. The Mustangs can inch their way closer to the top of the Division 3A standings where the Patriots can help cement a playoff spot and potentially a home game in the 5A bracket. There’s a lot to be won here, arguably the best meeting between these two since the 2007 and 2008 seasons.
Key matchup: Albemarle’s defensive line versus Monticello’s offensive line. There’s no debate here, this one is coming down to the game in the trenches. With the output the Mustangs have put up when they have the ball, it’s going to be up to the unit up front led by Ryan Londree for Albemarle to force the issues. Monticello is and has been pounding the ball on the ground week after week. The Patriots need to limit the Mustangs to fewer than 200 yards, something nobody’s done so far. It’s going to take pressue from a group a seniors to do that. The other side of that is that Monticello’s new and impressive unit up front has to grind down this experienced Albemarle front.
Who to watch: Monticello receivers Josh Malm and Alex McNair against the Albemarle secondary. The Patriots saw a pass happy Western team edge them in the final seconds. They played amazing against the run against a single-minded Powhatan team. Against Charlottesville, they gave up yardage but won the battle against the run because of turnovers. What this group will see from Monticello is going to be a mixed bag. They have to be there to help out against running back TJ Tillery, but if Malm gets space or McNair has only one tackle to break, it’s going to be the difference. This receiving corps has been the straw that’s broken so many backs so far. Albemarle can’t let that happen. Look for Monticello to force the issue.
The line: Monticello by 3. This should be the last great test the Mustangs face and the measuring stick game for Albemarle as it looks to qualify for the playoffs going ahead. Fans of physical football are the real winners here.
Western Albemarle (6-1) at Charlottesville (3-4), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Both Western and Charlottesville are wounded a bit after falling to Monticello and Albemarle respectively last week. Who bounces back the best will likely gain the upper-hand early. The 3A West is a loaded region and Western would be well-served not have any more slip-ups between now and the end of the regular season in order to be best positioned for a deep playoff run. Charlottesville could help lock itself into the playoffs with a win here, so there is a lot on the line for both squads. Both teams’ offense exploit a weakness in the other squad’s defense, with the Black Knights struggling against quick timing patterns that are part of the framework for the Warriors’ system while Western has struggled against the run. What got lost in the Monticello loss was that the Warriors made Monticello fight for nearly every yard, excluding the 90-yard toss from James St. Hill to Josh Malm. The Western defense is improving each week and may be the difference maker Friday.
Key matchup: Charlottesville’s defensive line takes on Western quarterback Kent Henry. Monticello showed again last week that the best hope to derailing the Warriors’ efficient, potent offense is to put pressure on Henry and that’ll fall largely to the men in the trenches. But look for the Warriors to adjust and change some things to make sure it doesn’t happen again, and if Henry’s receiving corps can heal up some, it’ll go a long way toward allowing them to find a rhythm.
Who to watch: Charlottesville’s Rashard Brock. The sophomore has emerged of late in the role Chris Thurston played last year, and he’s thriving, going for 147 yards on 19 carries last week. He could be the key to the Black Knights’ offense down the stretch.
The line: Western by 7. The Warriors are a little banged up but they’ve got enough firepower to get the job done here.
North Cross (5-2) at Covenant (3-5), 3:30 p.m.
The basics: Covenant got off on the right foot last week, jumping out to a 7-0 lead against St. Anne’s-Belfield in the annual crosstown rivalry matchup, but the Saints then reeled off 21 unanswered to push the Eagles further below .500. Now Covenant has to turn around and face a Jekyll and Hyde North Cross that lost to STAB but has a knack for winning shootouts behind a potent offense like they did against Atlantic Shores last week. Can Covenant right the ship and get healthy enough to string together a couple of wins here at the end of 2013?
Key matchup: North Cross’ Ryan Dent takes on Covenant’s front seven. The Eagles have struggled against the run the last few weeks, even surrendering more than 100 yards to STAB’s Jalen Harrison after the Saints struggled all year to find a run game. Dent has averaged 106.1 yards per game and if the Eagles can’t shore things up they could be in trouble.
Who to watch: Covenant’s Paul Huemme. The Eagles’ defensive back is averaging 7.6 tackles per game. If Covenant is going to slow down the North Cross offense, it’s going to start with Huemme making some plays either off the edge or in the secondary.
The line: North Cross by 10. The Raiders built some momentum with the narrow win over Atlantic Shores last week while the Eagles continue to stumble after suffering through a rash of injuries.
Orange County (1-6) at Louisa County (2-5), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Hornets fell last week to Powhatan, but offensively played better after getting shutout the week before against Charlottesville. The Lions are snake bitten at home by Fluvanna County, losing 23-6 last week in their second straight loss to the Flucos as Louisa continues to miss Markel Groomes on both sides of the ball with his season ending injury two weeks ago. This is a must win for the Lions in terms of playoff positioning. For the Hornets, it’s a chance to spoil their rivals’ chances in a game that was arguably the best rivalry the Jefferson District had just a few years ago, the famous battle for the Gordonsville Tastee Freeze.
Key matchup: Orange’s secondary versus the Lousia misdirection run game. If Louisa succeeds on the ground it can take control of the game, it’s shown that in both wins and losses this year. The Hornets, particularly at safety, can’t guess wrong, nor can they miss the tackles that help the Lions move the chains and keep a pretty talented defense nice and fresh.
Who to watch: Orange’s Mike Wallace and Louisa’s Deion Johnson. A big game from Wallace on the ground keeps Louisa’s offense on the sidelines or at the least, trying to play catch up. A big game from Johnson on both sides of the ball is key to the Lions as he’s needed greatly at defensive back against this group of skill position players. But any big play Louisa gets out of him offensively is just as important.
The line: Louisa by 3. The Lions don’t lose many games at home, much less two in a row. They’ve handled Orange in five straight games.
Fluvanna County (1-6) at Powhatan (5-2), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: This may be a road game, but the Flucos shouldn’t be fazed, not after going into the Jungle for a second straight year and escaping with a win. But if Fluvanna wants to get on track and build a lot of momentum they need to win two-in-a-row. St. Anne’s is proof that just getting a pair of wins in a row after a losing skid can make a wealth of difference for a program. But getting that victory against Powhatan won’t be easy. The Indians trounced Orange County 40-16 last week and don’t appear content to coast into the playoffs. The Indians showed off a more balanced offense last week with 216 passing yards from Cameroun Green, but Fluvanna picked off three passes last week, so attacking through the air may not be wise.
Key matchup: Fluvanna’s Marcus Jackson takes on the Powhatan run defense. Jackson helped spark the Flucos last week past Louisa with a pair of early touchdowns on the ground, but the Indians know what a talented tailback looks like since they have their own in Logan Allen. Look for the Indians to lock in on Jackson no matter what offensive formation the Flucos employ this week (the single wing did most of the damage last week).
Who to watch: Fluvanna defensive lineman Diondre Key. Key had a huge week last week and if the Flucos are going to stifle Allen who had 167 yards on 22 carries last week, Key is going to be critical to the operation.
The line: Powhatan by 10. The Indians’ ground attack is too much for the Flucos to handle on the road.
William Monroe (2-5) at George Mason (4-3), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Dragons came up with a nice rivalry win to potentially spoil Madison County’s playoff chances. The Mustangs fell last week in a tight 21-14 battle with Warren County. The Dragons chances at the postseason end here with a loss, and that’s true going forward the rest of the way, but they’ve won two of their last three contests, so something might be brewing in Stanardsville. The Mustangs are trying to position themselves for a winnable playoff game, and potentially one at home. This might not be marquee matchup in the Bull Run, but there are a lot of points here to be won in the ratings system for either side.
Key matchup: Mason’s defensive front seven against the Monroe ground game. Whether Tylek Burley, Cody Perkins, or someone else totes the ball for the Dragons, the Mustangs have to be able to find and make sure they make the open field tackles against this group. The stats don’t lie and when Monroe’s run the ball with success it’s won or been in the game down the stretch. Mason’s done well against the run, but in the last three weeks you have to tip your hat to the Dragons offensively the way they’ve controlled the tempo of the game.
Who to watch: Mason running back D’Montae Noble. The Mustangs have something special in their ground game too and he’s given everyone trouble. This is a team that went 1-9 last year and you can attribute the big turn around to Noble. There’s a lot of buzz in the Bull Run about his potential as a runner in the seasons coming up, but seven weeks in, he’s already mixing things up in a BRD that’s been dominated be Clarke County and Central Woodstock as of late. The Dragons have had their problems against big time running backs, they can’t afford not to wrap up Noble every chance they get. He’s likely to get his yardage, but it can’t be in the open field or after contact.
The line: Mason by 1. Monroe has made some real strides forward, but hitting the road against a Mustangs team that’s won some big games and played its others close is tough. Nonetheless, the Dragons can win this game if they limit the turnovers.
Goochland (5-2) at Cumberland (2-5), 7 p.m.
The basics: Goochland always seems to figure things out, and they’re clearly starting to find a recipe that could play dividends down the stretch and part of that means getting the ball into Jordan Jefferson’s hands more often. Coming out of the bye week, Jefferson took the reins at quarterback against Nottoway and rushed eight times for 95 yards and two touchdowns, averaging nearly 12 yards per touch. Jefferson rolling on the ground and Reid Chenault as a passing threat when he does enter the lineup along with a powerful dose of David Dyer’s clock-chewing style (Dyer had 116 yards on 18 carries last week)? That sounds suspiciously like what took the Bulldogs to Salem and a state title last year. Cumberland is in the midst of a five-game skid where they’ve surrendered more than 40 points four times.
Key matchup: Cumberland’s defensive line takes on Dyer. Dyer is a load for anyone to take on and he may be in for a huge day against the Dukes’ defense that’s struggled to stop opposing offenses from scoring of late.
Who to watch: Goochland’s Jefferson. If the Bulldogs are committed to getting their playmaker who missed the early stages of 2013 with an injury more involved, that’s going to be trouble for opponents in the stretch run.
The line: Goochland by 21. The Bulldogs are starting to round into postseason shape and Cumberland doesn’t have an answer for that.
Buckingham at Nottoway, 7 p.m.
The basics: Buckingham stepped up to take on Liberty-Bedford, a 3A squad, and absorbed a blowout loss. But the Knights should easily get back on track this week in the James River District as they try and maintain the current three-way tie atop the standings with Central Lunenburg and Goochland. Nottoway couldn’t stop Goochland last week and may run into just as much trouble trying to corral Buckingham’s Kenneth Johnson.
Key matchup: Buckingham’s defense takes on Nottoway’s Darius Jones. Goochland managed to largely stuff Jones last week but he’s a dangerous back when he gets going. The way the Knights hemmed in Central Lunenburg’s ground game gives every reason to think they’ll have answers for Jones too.
Who to watch: Buckingham’s wideouts. If the Knights want to put together a playoff run, they’re going to have to keep defenses honest and prevent them from loading up the box. Getting Justin Ayres and Jesse Hickman more involved in some way could help spark that transformation. Trying to find some rhythm through the air against Nottoway would be a good place to start.
The line: Buckingham by 10. Knights should overwhelm Nottoway on the ground.
Madison County (2-5) at Strasburg (3-4), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Mountaineers fell on the road to Monroe, their second straight loss. The Rams picked up a much needed win against Manassas Park. This is another battle with two teams trying to make the playoffs. After playing so well defensively a few weeks ago, turnovers and big plays have hurt the Mountaineers greatly, but they still have a lot to play for. Strasburg ended a 3-game skid last week that would have likely doomed its season. Expect a battle here because both teams are in the same position.
Key matchup: Madison’s front seven versus the Strasburg running game. The Mountaineers will want to bounce back after what they gave up against Monroe on the ground, and to do that they have to stop Colton Funk, Justin Carr and Michael Conley. The former two averaged more than five yards a carry last week against Manassas Park. But Madison’s secondary, which has a lot of talent and potential along with the middle of its defense, has to play smart as Rams quarterback Mark Smoot caught the Cougars napping last week for 220 yards and three touchdowns and just on nine completions out of 14 attempts. Slowing the run is the priority, but playing assignment football on play-action might be just as key. That means not over pursuing on the run and not biting on the fake.
Who to watch: Mountaineers’ quarterback James Graves. While he’s still battling an injury, he’s on the field working his way through it and he’s over 1,000 yards passing. That’s important as the Mountaineers don’t have a runner with more that 275 yards are averaging 3.1 yards per carry as a team. Graves has to get things going with receiver Ashton Weakley as he has 841 yards and 50 receptions this year, by far the Mountaineers biggest threat. But if Graves has the time to drop back and find his other receivers or his check downs, that would be huge for Madison. Right now, in a way, the short game passing attack is the compliment to the run game. The big time stuff to Weakley is the engine, but Strasburg will be crazy not to double team him.
The line: Madison by 1. Sure it’s on the road and Madison’s had its struggles the last two weeks, but the Mountaineers have beaten two teams that are well ahead of Strasburg. A third straight loss would be unusual for this program and put them in a tight spot.
Benedictine (4-3) at Fork Union (1-6), Saturday 3 p.m.
The basics: A rematch of last year’s VISAA Division 1 semifinal, the Cadets are trying to bounce back from an 0-3 start to qualify for the postseason. Last week’s 37-0 rout of Bishop Ireton was crucial, and for Benedictine to have a shot in the playoff, they have to take down Fork Union as they finish up the regular season with powerhouse Liberty Christian. Fork Union is out of the running and trying to end a 3-game skid, albeit one where they’ve played the three top-ranked Division 1 programs in successive weeks. There’s still plenty of incentive for this Blue Devils squad as they could sour the Cadets’ season a week before FUMA faces off against rival Woodberry.
Key matchup: Fork Union’s secondary against Benedictine quarterback Bryce Hamilton. The good news is that the Blue Devils just saw the premiere Prep League quarterback last week in Collegiate’s Michigan-bound Wilton Speight. The Cadets’ scheme and personnel isn’t on the same level as the Cougars’, but Benedictine has a solid ground game to lean on. Fork Union’s secondary has to read Hamilton’s movement and be sure that he’s handing off to running back Alex Williams and not setting up the big pass down field.
Who to watch: As is the case just about every week for FUMA, running back Rashon Torrence. When the Blue Devils get big time production out of their runner, they have a fighting chance. When defense’s limit him to 100-yards or less, Fork Union has struggled. The good news is that in his first five games of the year he only failed to break to the century mark against St. Christopher’s. In that stretch he averaged a fraction shy of nine yards per carry. After back-to-back weeks struggling on offense, the Blue Devils need to get back to putting up some numbers on the board to help out the defense. And if Torrence can help FUMA win the time of possession battle, that’s all icing on the cake.
The line: Benedictine by 4. It’s hard to argue against the Cadets right now, winners of four in a row with one of those coming against a vaunted St. Christopher’s squad.
William Campbell (0-7) at Nelson County (0-7), 7 p.m.
The basics: There’s going to be one very happy team walking off the field in Lovingston on Friday. The Generals are coming off a 48-6 loss to Dogwood District force Dan River. The Governors got to see another force in Dogwood in Altavista as they fell, 67-13. It’s going to be an emotional night in Lovingston as fans will be showing up doused in pink clothing in honor of Alexis Murphy, the senior volleyball player who’s been missing since August 3rd. A win here for the Governors could really help to alleviate the mood, even if only for just a few hours. All the games played between these two teams have been blowouts so far with the exception of Nelson’s 14-9 loss to Page County in week two and Campbell’s 34-28 loss to Randolph Henry in week one. It’s going to be interesting to see how both squads deal with a potentially close game. It’s been a while.
Key matchup: The opposing defensive front sevens. Both teams have struggled in almost exactly the same way. Nelson’s offense has scored 32 points the last two weeks combined while Campbell has managed just 18 points in the last five weeks. If the Governors can create turnovers through penetration up front, they should be okay. Conversely, Campbell has to be stout up front given that they’ve been shutout three times in the last five weeks and only managed to score more than once three weeks ago in a 55-12 loss to Appomattox.
Who to watch: Nelson quarterback Peyton Galloway. He picked up the two scores for the Governors last week with his legs. Getting big plays from Galloway is the key to this offense so far and when he plays well with his line in front of him, Nelson’s been able to score some points. It’s hard to know what kind of scoring affair this game will have, but if the Governors score more than 20 it would put the Genrals in a tough spot as they’ve only scored more than 20 once and that was against a pourous Randolph Henry defense to start the year. Lots of production from Galloway is probably the difference maker.
The line: Nelson by 1. The atmosphere, the matchup, it’s time right? The Governors get a truly feel good win here.
St. Christopher’s (6-2) at Woodberry Forest (5-1), Saturday 3 p.m.
The basics: This is going to be a dandy. The Saints held off Episcopal last week 34-30 to help bolster their VISAA Division 1 playoff standings as only the top four qualify. The Tigers are coming of their bye week a week after handling Landon 45-17, their fourth win a row. Were Woodberry a participant in the playoffs, they’d likely be ranked first and second. They are in the drivers seat for a Prep League championship and a win here all but likely cements it. This should be a good old fashioned defensive battle. That’s not exactly anything new at Woodberry by the way.
Key matchup: St. Christopher’s offensive line takes on the Woodberry front seven. Right now there’s nobody that’s been safe from this defensive front that the Tigers have. Whether it’s Greer Martini literally flying around the field playing middle linebacker but looking like a defensive tackle one play and a free safety the next or Spencer Bibb who is just an animal off the ball and never quits pursuing — the bottom line is this is an aggressive unit that forces a lot of punts and creates a lot of turnovers. The Saints have to be physical and try and tire this defense and that starts with running the ball and the offensive line has to be on point to do that.
Who to watch: Woodberry’s quarterback situation. Hunter Etheridge should be back under center, but he’s coming off an injury. In his absence the Tigers found out that freshman Lindell Stone is going to something special down the road and that Christian Zaytoun can step in and make big time throws as well. Etheridge is the senior leader here, and he brings a lot to the field with both his arm, his legs and his mind for the game. But it will be interesting to see how many snaps Stone and Zaytoun get given Etheridge’s injury. Quarterback controversies might not play out well in college or in the pros, but when it comes to keeping athletes healthy and mixing things up offensively, at the high school level, it’s surprising how often a platoon at this position works.
The line: Tigers by 6. The bye week is huge. Giving this staff more than a week to prepare is deadly for just about any potential Woodberry opponent.
St. Anne’s (3-4) at Christchurch (1-6), Saturday 2 p.m.
The basics: What a difference a month makes. A little more than three weeks ago, St. Anne’s-Belfield was sitting at 0-4. Now? They’ve got a decent chance at a playoff spot if they can win their final two games and get a little help. Of course, any time you’re playing Christchurch at their place, there’s reason to be concerned. The Seahorses may be 1-6, but they’re not going to go away easily at home. Look for STAB to keep mixing things up and throwing in new wrinkles. The Saints’ swagger is clearly back and Christchurch may find out that’s too much to handle.
Key matchup: STAB’s linebackers take on Braeden Rosell. The Seahorses’ dual threat quarterback is a load to take on in the ground game, and Christchurch should employ a heavy dose of him. Look for the Saints to try and hem the Seahorses in as they did with Covenant’s run game last week.
Who to watch: STAB’s Jalen Harrison. Now he’s even playing some quarterback for the Saints, and he immediately became a rushing threat. He’s done everything STAB has asked him to do as a receiver, defensive back and return man, and now he’s showing he’s capable of rushing for more than 100 yards while also picking off two passes on the other side of the ball.
The line: STAB by 10. Harrison is emerging as a multi-faceted force and that should be enough to get the job done this week and setup a potential win-or-your-season-is-over battle with Blue Ridge next week.
Liberty Christian (6-1) at Blue Ridge (3-4), Saturday 2 p.m.
The basics: Last year Blue Ridge ram into this juggernaut of a squad late in the year and part of the goal became just staying healthy and getting to the next week. But if the Barons ever had a time to move all their chips to the center of the table, this week is it. An upset here would almost surely vault Blue Ridge into the playoff picture and set up an intriguing clash with STAB in the regular season finale. The Barons don’t have the luxury of coasting with four losses, they’ve got to find a way to give the mighty Bulldogs their best shot.
Key matchup: Blue Ridge’s P.J. White takes on Liberty Christian receiver B.J. Farrow on defense in the battle of the initials. Both players are clearly established gamebreakers, with White scoring nearly 30 percent of the time that he touches the ball and Farrow not far behind him with seven touchdowns and 536 yards on the year already. While both would be wise not to lose site of the team plan, when they do get a chance to matchup with White guarding Farrow, there could be fireworks.
Who to watch: Blue Ridge’s Torian Pegram. Playing keep away from the Bulldogs with a heavy regimen of Pegram’s power running style could be crucial to the Barons. If Farrow and the rest of the LCA offense is on the sideline, Blue Ridge could find a way to steal this one.
The line: Liberty Christian by 14. The Barons have a lot more on the line in this one than LCA, but Blue Ridge may not have enough firepower to trip up the Bulldogs.
