Potomac (10-0) at St. Anne’s-Belfield (10-1), VISAA Division 2 final, 6 p.m.
The Basics: During the regular season, STAB barely held off Christchurch. Last week, they crushed the Seahorses and left little doubt about why they’re the No. 1 seed in the Division 2 playoffs. They accomplished that by cutting down on mistakes, with the offensive line in particular playing fantastic football in the semifinal. That opened the door for Branford Rogers to pile up 218 yards and three touchdowns on 32 touches. Just so it’s clear, that’s exactly how John Blake wants it in the playoffs. Grinding it out and daring defenses to stop the run. Potomac, unbeaten or not, is going to have to stop the STAB rushing attack and that’s easier said than done.
Key matchup: Potomac’s secondary goes toe-to-toe with STAB wideouts Nicco Freeo and Andrew Crockett. If the Panthers’ defensive backs try and cheat to play the run, Freeo and Crockett can make them play. Freeo in particular is an incredibly dangerous big play receiver—he’s leading the area with 35.4 yards per catch, and he’s done it on a regular basis, with 744 yards receiving on the season.
Who to watch: Potomac’s Connor McNerney. The quarterback led the Panthers in rushing with 66 yards on 18 carries and threw for another 193 yards on 7-for-11 passing against John Paul the Great. He’ll have to play great for Potomac to have a shot.
Line: STAB by 7. If the Saints come out focused, there’s not much that can stop them, even unbeaten Potomac.
Broad Run (10-1) at Louisa County (11-0) , Region II, Division 4 semifinals, 7:30 p.m.
The Basics: After a field position battle to start, the Lions got rolling against James Wood in the Region II Division 4 quartefinals last Friday. Now in the semifinals, Louisa absolutely faces its toughest opponent yet in Broad Run. In their 10 wins, the Spartans have an average margin of victory of a little more than 25 points. Since falling to Briar woods, Broad Run has won five straight including a convincing playoff win last week against Sherando.
Key matchup: Louisa’s outside linebackers against Broad Run’s shift from single wing to the spread. Believe it or not, that’s been a key for Lions opponents. Last week the Lions passed their test against a run heavy offense. Now they face a doppelganger with Spartans quarterback Connor Jessop back to full health. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on outside linebackers like Anthony Hunter and Rayshawn Jackson who will be in man-to-man coverage without help over top from time to time. This defense has shown its versatility in games against Orange and Eastern View. They’ll need to be able to bend and not break again to keep their season alive.
Player to watch for: Louisa quarterback Kire Worley. When the Lions’ running game has sputtered to start games, Worley’s been able to kick start the offense with his arm or his legs. The Spartans boast a talented defense, but it hasn’t locked down opponents the way the Lions have. Should Worley keep the turnovers to a minimum and convert third downs like he did last week, Louisa will have the inside track.
Line: Lions by 1. Louisa’s defense contains the run and gets after Jessop to lead the way to a Region II Championship game.
Madison County (8-2) at Altavista (9-1), Region B, Division I semifinals, 7:30 p.m.
The Basics: These two schools just can’t avoid each other. In a rematch of last year’s Region B quarterfinal, the Mountaineers face last year’s Group A, Division 1 championship, again on the road. Last week had dramatically different regular season finales as Madison came up just short against Clarke County in a battle for the Bull Run Championship, while Altavista wrapped up its year with a dominant win over Nelson County. While the Colonels have a significant chunk of last year’s title team back in the fold, the Mountaineers are arguably better and more dangerous this year than last. Altavista capitalized on turnovers last year to narrowly top Madison, this year they won’t be able to lock in on the ground attack in the same way — or if they do, Mountaineer quarterback Dustin Farmer should have a big day.
Key matchup: The battle in the trenches between Madison’s offensive line and Altavista’s defensive front. The Mountaineers diverse offense truly shines when Farmer gets more than two seconds to make his reads and running backs Ralph Yates and Maurice Gentry aren’t reaching first contact in their own backfield. If the Madison line can hang tough, this has the makings of a high scoring affair.
Player to watch for: Madison quarterback Dustin Farmer. It’s easy to forget considering the season he’s had, but Farmer’s just a sophomore and this is his first playoff game. He’s shown grit in big time games like his team’s win two weeks ago against Manassas Park. If Farmer doesn’t get rattled in this game, not only will the Mountaineers be in solid shape in this game, but it will bode quite well for this program’s future.
Line: Altavista by 3. It’s hard not go with the defending champs here, especially since they won last year and once again it’s at home. But Madison’s going to give the Colonels all they can handle.
Buckingham (9-1) at Clarke County (9-1) Region B, Division 2 semifinal, 7:30 p.m.
The Basics: The Knights stumbled against Amelia two weeks ago but came roaring back with Maurice Taylor going for 200 yards in a win over Central Lunenburg. Clarke will be an interesting test for Buckingham. The Eagles have their own star senior tailback, Grant Shaw, who went for 200 yards himself last week in a one-touchdown win over Madison County. Shaw got the ball mostly on direct snaps last week against the Mountaineers, so the Knights will have to adjust on the fly and be ready for that package. This will be run game against run game, and whatever defense can disrupt the other offense’s rhythm will likely win it.
Key matchup: Buckingham’s Tarian Ayers goes toe-to-toe with Clarke’s pass defense. Ayers would be wise not to force anything against the Eagles. Madison tried to do that against Clarke last Friday in the second half and linebacker Alex Sefton picked off three passes, which helped spark Clarke’s comeback.
Who to watch: Buckingham’s Jackson Bryant. The Knights’ defensive back had a monster game with 12 total tackles against Central Lunenburg last week. He should be a big help against the Clarke offensive attack.
Line: Buckingham by 3. The Knights will face a tough task on the road, but Maurice Taylor should be enough for the Buckingham offense to get out to an early lead.
Monticello (7-4) at Handley (7-4) Region II, Division 3 semifinal Saturday, 1 p.m.
The Basics: This one is a clash of two teams that want to control the football and, in turn, the clock. That’s how Handley, which has had a more dynamic approach offensively in the past, took care of Western Albemarle last week, with 18 of the Judges’ first 20 plays coming on the ground according to the Northern Virginia Daily. Look for both teams to try and grind it out on the ground, and the squad that executes better is certainly going to have the upperhand. The records may be similar, but the Mustangs eeked out a win against Goochland last week while Handley, who might be finding its stride after some stumbles earlier in the year, took Western apart.
Key matchup: Monticello’s offensive line takes on an attacking Handley front seven. The Judges sacked Western’s Abbot Wallenborn four times, which played a major role in disrupting the Warriors’ offense. Second-team All-JD tackle Matt Hunt, Monticello’s top lineman, will have to play a big role in slowing the Judges.
Who to watch: Handley’s Trae Peck. Peck piled up 120 yards in the first half against the Warriors and finished with 150. Last week, outside of a long touchdown by Dustin Plummer, Monticello did a pretty good job early of slowing down Goochland’s ground game, but late the Bulldogs got the ball moving. If Monticello’s defense can’t find a way to contain Peck, Handley might take control of the contest.
Line: Monticello by 3. Sure, long shot. But Jesse Ayres should bounce back in a big way next week after being held under 100 yards for the first time all year.
Fork Union (6-5) at Collegiate (6-4), VISSA Division I final, 1 p.m. Saturday
The Basics: Liberty Christian might still be scratching its head. Where did this Fork Union team come from? We’ve made the point before, but it warrants repeating — teams seem to look at FUMA’s record and gloss over the opponents they played. After slaying the odds on favorite to win the VISAA Divison 1 title last week on the road, FUMA heads to Collegiate to dethrone the defending champs in their own house. The Blue Devils handled the Cougars in the regular season, winning on the road behind a monster game from Richie Dyer, 46-21. Collegiate comes into the last game of the year after avenging a home loss against St. Christopher’s two weeks ago in overtime with a 12-point win on the road against the Saints in the semifinals. So it’s the third and fourth seeds doing battle for the championship. And if you’re Fork Union you have to remember that while you won what many felt was the championship game last week, you don’t get the official hardware unless you take care of an old rival this week.
Key matchup: Just like the last go around, this game comes down to FUMA’s secondary against Collegiate’s passing attack. Last time Ka’ra Stewart not only came up with crucial turnovers, but turned them into points. Should Stewart, Dyer, Cameron Grice and the rest of the defensive backs play like they did last time, Fork Union will handle its business.
Player to watch for: Dyer. Last week we pointed out that an electric play from the team’s top playmaker could spark an upset. It did, and now Dyer gets a chance to see if he can replicate his 5-carry 166-yard performance in his last meeting with Collegiate. Don’t forget about him in the return game either. The Cougars know what’s coming this time around, so it will be interesting to see how Dyer, his coaches and his teammates respond to the adjustments.
Line: FUMA by 4. This team’s been through the meat grinder and looks poised to come out on top. What a wild year for the Blue Devils.
