Western Albemarle (6-0) at Monticello (6-0), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Everyone was looking forward to this ballgame in the preseason and everything has fallen in place to make it as good as anticipated. Both teams are unbeaten and rated among the top squads in 3A with both securely in the playoffs already. Last season the Mustangs ended Western’s season in the Region II semifinals to avenge a regular season loss. This year Monticello has an entirely new look that keeps getting better each week while the Warriors have put together a lot of new pieces and are on a roll, particularly in the second half where they’ve been on fire. Both teams like to push the pace and put up points, and that should make for a thriller in Mustang country. The real question will be which defense steps up and makes some big plays. Last year in the regular season that’s how Western got the job done, picking off passes to make big plays.
Key matchup: Western’s Kent Henry versus Monticello’s James St. Hill. Nobody is going to ask St. Hill to outplay Henry, the area’s all-time total yardage leader, but he has to do enough to keep Western’s defense from selling out against the run as he’s been doing the last few weeks. If Western tries to load up in the box early to correct two straight weeks of struggles against the power run game, look for St. Hill to try and find Josh Malm (an incredible 34.3 yards per catch) over the top.
Who to watch: Monticello’s T.J. Tillery. Tillery terrorized Western last season in the playoffs and he’s been piling up tackles all season for the Mustangs again this year. Albemarle showed that if you can get pressure on Henry, it disrupts Western’s timing on offense and can at least slow down the Warriors. Tillery can be that kind of x-factor.
Line: Monticello by 1. The Mustangs are at home, they beat the Warriors in the last matchup during the 2012 playoffs. The edge here has to go to Monticello.
Covenant (3-4) at St. Anne’s-Belfield (2-4), 7 p.m.
The basics: STAB made it two-wins-in-a-row with a victory over Isle of Wight and the Saints appear to have their swagger back, refusing to melt in a narrow 10-7 win. The Eagles, on the other hand, just absorbed a sound thumping against Virginia Episcopal in the driving rain last Thursday and absorbed another spate of injuries in the process. Expect Covenant to try and bring it together and rally in what’s now officially a rivalry after the Eagles beat STAB last year for the first time in school history. But getting back on track won’t be an easy task for the Eagles’ depleted roster that’s absorbed blow after blow. It’s clear that this is a battle between two teams headed in the opposite direction, but both could easily reverse course. Whoever can dictate the pace and make a big play early should be in good shape.
Key matchup: Covenant’s secondary takes on STAB’s wideouts. The Eagles have looked vulnerable against the run more than the pass, but the Saints are on a two-game win streak in part because of their talented crop of receivers. The Eagles will have their hands full against Jalen Harrison and Kareem Johnson. Johnson has, in particular, been on a tear of late. If those two get loose against Covenant the Eagles will be in trouble.
Who to watch: Covenant’s Austin Llera. Llera ran well at times against Virginia Episcopal and his power-run approach seems like the most logical remedy from what ails the Eagles’ offense. If Covenant can take some of the pressure off Jay Gaffney who’s been running for his life behind a reworked offensive line of late. Feeding Llera might be the answer.
Line: STAB by 7. The Eagles are banged up and sliding while the Saints are picking up momentum with every win.
Charlottesville (3-3) at Albemarle (3-3), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Well this is a meeting of two teams in similar spots. The Black Knights bounced back from a loss to Monticello with a resounding win over Orange County. The Patriots on the other hand picked themselves up after the last second loss to Western to grind out a 7-6 win over a physical Powhatan team. The winner of this game positions itself ijust behind whatever happens in the Western/Monticello aftermath and likely becomes the dark horse to officially mix things up down the stretch. Both teams have playoff hopes and a win for either makes the possibility much more likely.
Key matchup: Charlottesville’s rushing defense takes on Albemarle’s Dominique Talley. Coming off the way Albemarle’s defense played last week, the Black Knights cannot let the Patriots control the clock with Talley. He’s put up some big numbers and is the kind of physical runner that Charlottesville saw in Markel Groomes when they fell to Louisa County. If Talley has a big night, the Black Knights are in trouble. Similarly for Albemarle, if the run game does its thing, their defense should be able to handle the rest.
Who to watch: Albemarle’s Ryan Londree and Charlottesville’s Troy Hughes. The big fellas up front will dictate this game. Can Charlottesville stop Londree from mauling defenders and creating huge holes? Can Albemarle slow down a big but athletic body in Hughes from getting penetration. While Albemarle is the more experienced and arguably the more physical team coming in, there’s no questioning Charlottesville’s athleticism between quarterback Chris Thurston, running back Rashard Brock and receiver Leon Straus. A slow tempo with Londree wreaking havoc gives Albemarle a big edge. Lots of three and outs with Hughes stepping up defensively give Charlottesville a chance to let their playmakers do their thing.
The line: Albemarle by 4. The Patriots get the nod at home and for its performance against Western in a close loss and the gritty win on the road last week against Powhatan. Charlottesville needs to rise to the occasion and beat one of the big teams and this is a major chance.
Madison County (2-4) at William Monroe (1-5), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Mountaineers fell to a tough Clarke County team in sloppy conditions with the 40-20 loss being much closer than the score suggests as it was a one possession game in the fourth quarter. The Dragons were on upset watch as they held Bull Run District front runner Central Woodstock to within two points in the first half before falling 24-8. If the Mountaineers can pick up a third win, they likely sit one win away from a playoff berth thanks to beating two teams a division ahead of them, and this would be a third. The Dragons would love to spoil those chances against their archrival.
Key matchup: Monroe’s secondary versus Madison receiver Ashton Weakley. The Mountaineer receiver finds a way to make big plays every game, last week included with a pair of long touchdowns. He’s the definition of an x-factor as you can’t pin it on size, but his toughness, hands and vision after the catch are the lifeline behind this Madison offense. The Dragons need to blanket him with a zone or double coverage and then make sure they make the tackle him when he’s there. Conversely, Madison needs a couple of big plays from Weekley to help keep the run game viable.
Who to watch: Madison safety Isaiah Smith. He’s a freshman playing beyond his years and the most athletic and arguably intuitive member of the Mountaineers defense. How he hunts down the Monroe rushing game will be key, taking the right angles on the attack in particular. The Dragons have a nice running game and Smith’s the last line of defense. If he makes plays, it’s going to be tough for Monroe to keep pace with Madison’s offense. If the Dragons can get past Smith, they’re in business.
The line: Madison by 1. We’ll call this the best rivalry in the Bull Run, biased though it may sound. These two hate each other and do it well every year. The Mountaineers’ balance on offense and showing defensively before the Clarke game gives them the edge on the road.
Collegiate (5-1) at Fork Union (1-5), 3 p.m.
The basics: The Cougars bounced back after their first loss of the year to Woodberry Forest with a convincing 28-7 win over St. Mary’s of Ryken last week. The Blue Devils ran into the buzzsaw that is Liberty Christian on the road, falling 47-6. With FUMA playing another pass happy team, this one is a bit different as LCA presents a running threat and runs a pro-set offense. Collegiate brings its five-wide spread look with a Division 1 quarterback pulling the strings, making this a much different challenge schematically.
Key matchup: Fork Union’s secondary takes on the Cougars receiving corps. How well the Blue Devils show will depend entirely on how well it can keep Collegiate quarterback Wilton Speight from being able to find all his targets. Fork Union needs one hand to wash the other defensively with the line upfront getting a good pass rush while still playing a bit of contain on the mobile threat Speight brings. That said. It’s hard to zone up against this team with the way they spread out in open space so this game probably gets summed up with how well the Blue Devils’ secondary plays in one-on-one coverage and tackles in the open field. With Collegiate, it’s not so much the deep pass that’s the dagger, it’s the nickel and dime stuff underneath that turns into big plays.
Who to watch: Fork Union quarterback Sam Allen. While running back Rashon Torrence is the key to this offense, the Blue Devills will need Allen’s arm and legs to be the difference maker here to try and run up the score. There’s little question that the Cougars will focus on Torrence so what Allen can produce in the air, and probably more importantly, on the ground on his own or out of play-fakes will dictate who close FUMA can keep the score. It’s going to take a lot to be able to keep pace with Speight and the Collegiate offense, but Allen has himself a game as he’s done earlier in the year, all it would take is one or two turnovers to make this one interesting down the stretch.
The line: Collegiate by 7. The Cougars have so much on offense and what rarely gets mentioned is that they’ve been playing pretty solid defense as of late.
Powhatan (4-2) at Orange County (1-5), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Indians lost a tough at home against Albemarle a week after putting a solid mark on the Jefferson District standings with a road win over Louisa County. The Hornets saw their momentum come to a halt last week as they were shutout by Charlottesvile after picking up their first win of the season against Fluvanna County the week before. It’s a battle of contrasting styles here as the Hornets will look to play to their skill position players while there’s no secret that Powhatan is going to play defense behind it’s big running game.
Key matchup: Orange’s offensive line against Powhatan’s defensive line. This game, both the score and the margin will be determined by how well the Hornets play up front against the rush. The Indians have the bodies up front and will look to pound the ball up the middle and off-tackle. That will continue until Orange does something about it and so getting a good jump and filling the gaps is the most important thing that the Hornets can do. You could argue that’s the key for Orange against every JD team after they played Western. But it’s especially important here.
Who to watch: Powhatan’s Logan Allen. He’s the man with the ball at running back. He’s big, he’s deceptively fast and he has a coach in Jim Woodson that’s old school. Allen is going to get his touches and be the difference in this game one way or the other. If Orange can’t stop him, it’s going to be tough sledding. If they can keep him from wearing down the defensive front, the Hornets could have a fighting chance with its playmakers on offense and special teams.
The line: Powhatan by 10. The Indians’ physicality takes this one. It’s defense is solid, and it’s got the offense to own the clock, something that will give Orange problems.
Nelson County (0-6) at Altavista (5-1), 7 p.m.
The basics: While the Governors had their best showing offensively since week one, they fell by double digits to Chatham last week. The Colonels, they steamrolled Dan River 30-0 last week to bounce back from a 1-point loss to Gretna the week before. Altavista’s played two of best team’s in the Dogwood District and they the other. Only Galax and Gretna have put together more than a touchdown together against the Colonels and with Galax, it was still a blowout in Altavista’s favor. The Governors, unfortunately, have their hands full here.
Key matchup: The Governors secondary takes on Altavista quarterback Juan Thornhill. The Colonels quarterback is a great runner but also know how to make plays with his arm, with the former being the biggest threat. Nelson’s secondary has to play up close and can’t get caught on play-fakes while it’s linebacking corps has to be able to keep him bottled up and monitor the checkdowns. Nobody’s really been able to do it so far, Gretna included. But if the Governors want to set the tone, they’ll make sure it’s not Thornhill’s legs that make the difference.
Who to watch: Altavista receiver Mech Maulbeck. If Nelson can keep him from being Thornhill’s big play threat, they can zone in on stopping the Colonels impressive rushing game. If not, it’s going to be a rough night on the road. It’s not going to be easy with likely just one safety to help out, but Nelson has to get it done there or else their defense will be worn down by the running game. There’s no stopping it with seven in the box.
The line: Altavista by 14. The Colonels have the defense and way to much offense here and a home crowd to boot.
Fluvanna County (0-6) at Louisa County (2-4), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Louisa County can’t seen to find a way to put an end to the penalties that keep taking them out of games, including last week’s loss to Western Albemarle, while Fluvanna can’t seem to get on track in any phase of the game. The Lions have played a brutal schedule so far and they could get an opportunity to let out some frustration against the Flucos who went into the Jungle last year and beat the Lions for the first time in a decade. Expect Louisa to be focused on revenge in this one.
Key matchup: Fluvanna’s Marcus Jackson takes on Louisa’s defense. Jackson gave the Flucos’ run game some life last week with 53 yards on the ground. Jackson seems to be Fluvanna’s best hope right now to get going and find some momentum. But it won’t be easy against a stingy Louisa unit.
Who to watch: Louisa’s Deon Jackson. The freshman, who’s older brother Andre Mealy starred for the Lions a couple of years ago and now plays for James Madison, had a breakout performance last week against Western in his first action as a tailback, rushing for 86 yards on 17 carries. Look for his role to continue to expand as the Lions try and find their footing again.
Line: Louisa by 14. The Lions have faced an incredibly difficult schedule but this is a pretty good football team that has a chance to get back on track in a big way against the Flucos.
Nottoway (4-2) at Goochland (4-2), 7 p.m.
The basics: Goochland’s bye week went as well as they could’ve hoped as Buckingham knocked off Central Lunenburg to boost the Bulldogs into a three-way tie atop the James River District and the Bulldogs got a chance to get healthy and primed for a strong second half of 2013. That starts with a solid Nottoway squad that is hunting for a quality win but may run into a brick wall on the road as Goochland looks to gear up for a strong finish to the regular season.
Key matchup: Goochland’s defense takes on Nottoway’s Jujuan Lawson on the ground. The last time the Bulldogs took the field, they got gashed by Lunenburg’s run game. Lawson is averaging big numbers so far this year, including a 6.6 yard per carry effort against Amelia last week in a loss. Expect the Bulldogs to bounce back here.
Who to watch: Goochland’s Jordan Jefferson. He’s finally healthy again and Jefferson should help jumpstart the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball down the stretch. He had 171 yards of total offense against the Chargers in the loss and also scored on a fumble return for a touchdown. Jefferson is a classic Swiss Army knife-style player, adapting to any role the Bulldogs need from him on a given Friday.
Line: Goochland by 14. The Bulldogs got a chance to get healthy during the bye, and should start rounding into postseason form this week.
Buckingham (4-2) at Liberty-Bedford (4-2), 7 p.m.
The basics: What a difference a week makes. After losing to Goochland and watching Central Lunenburg beat the Bulldogs, the Knights appeared headed for a loss and potentially a rocky road to finish 2013. But behind a Herculean performance from Kenneth Johnson, the Knights created a three-way tie atop the James River and gave themselves a big boost in the playoff standings. The reward is a challenging clash with 3A Liberty-Bedford, and it won’t be easy on the road against a squad that’s usually big and physical.
Key matchup: Liberty’s defense takes on the Knights’ run-heavy offense. The Minutemen are winning at a nice clip, but they’re also giving up a lot of points. Against Buckingham’s prolific run game that could spell major trouble.
Who to watch: Buckingham’s Kenneth Johnson. This season everyone knows that Johnson is getting the ball. Last week against Central Lunenburg, it truly didn’t matter as Johnson ripped off one of the Top 10 performances in state history against the Chargers. Now we’ll see if he has an encore in store.
Line: Liberty by 7. Buckingham gets a major challenge here while stepping out of James River play. How close the Knights can play with Liberty Bealeton will give some indication whether last week was a fluke or the beginning of something big for Buckingham.
Blue Ridge (3-3) at Virginia Episcopal (5-1), 2 p.m. Saturday
The basics: Blue Ridge is on a major roll right now after beating Trinity Episcopal on the road as the Barons evened their record at 3-3 and pulled within one spot of the Division II playoffs. Now the question is can the Barons keep it going against another quality opponent in Virginia Episcopal, currently the top-ranked squad in Division III. The Barons’ playoff hopes depend on it.
Key matchup: Blue Ridge’s front seven takes on VES’s power-run game. The Bishops rolled past Covenant with a multi-faceted ground game that featured Tre Fields’ big play ability as VES pulled away from the Eagles. Blue Ridge knows how to put the clamps down and will lean on Ryan Etheridge and Jordan Edelman as well as a rugged, aggressive line led by Nathan Johnson abd his 4.7 tackles per game to get the job done.
Who to watch: Blue Ridge’s P.J. White. Just keeping up with where he is on the field is a headache for opposing defensive coordinators. He’s not really a wideout or fully a running back anymore — he’s just a flat out playmaker for the Barons. Last week he scored on a 67-yard touchdown through the air and scored again on the ground in a 34-31 victory. He can make Virginia Episcopal pay if they lose track of him for even one play.
Line: Push. The Bishops are physical and big, seem to be picking up steam and have home field advantage, but the Barons’ ground game may be too much for VES to take.
