Goochland (8-0) at Buckingham (7-1), 7 p.m.
The basics: It’s time for Goochland to get down to business, the Bulldogs less-demanding part of the schedule is over. Expect the Bulldogs to start approaching the field with a playoff-like approach, because with Buckingham and Amelia on the docket before the Eastern Section tournament starts, Goochland is going to need to be in top form. Buckingham has been a rushing machine of late, with Kenneth Johnson, Kyree Koonce and Tarian Ayers all moving the ball on the ground behind a strong offensive line. But producing against a consistent, rock solid Goochland defense should prove to be a crucial test for the Knights.
Key matchup: Buckingham’s tackles take on Goochland’s Nathan Adams. Containing Adams or running and rolling out away from the junior is key to beating Goochland’s defense. Expect the Knights’ offensive line to focus on Adams.
Who to watch: Goochland’s Jess McLaughlin. McLaughlin leads Goochland in tackling as part of a balanced defense where seven defenders have stacked up 20 or more tackles. They’ll have their hands full against the Buckingham offense.
The line: Goochland by 7. The Bulldogs are so tough to beat in all phases of the game, and will likely have cooked up an answer for an explosive Buckingham offense.
William Campbell (3-5) at Nelson (0-7) at 7 p.m.
The basics: The Governors have two cracks to get a win, and they’re two decent cracks. While the Generals are coming off a 20-point win over Chatham (Nelson’s final opponent), they’ve struggled on defense, giving up 30 points or more in five games including three of their last four. Nelson had more than it could handle last week against powerhouse Gretna, but will look to give its fans a reason to cheer on senior night.
Key matchup: Nelson’s eight-in-the-box against William Campbell running back Marcus Alexander. It’s been the source of this team’s struggles since week one against William Monroe. The Governors cannot let Alexander get to the second level.
Who to watch: Nelson’s Sedrick Brown. The receiver was responsible for 93 of his team’s 101 passing yards last week against Gretna and also had his team’s only score. With Campbell’s methodical approach on offense, the Governors are going to need big plays from the wideout to answer.
The line: William Campbell by 7. Running game too much for Nelson in this one, but this game will be an improvement from last week.
Orange at Mountain View (6-2) at 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Hornets’ schedule saved the worst for last. These last two weeks, Orange will play the Commonwealth District’s two-top teams, and it heads up the road this week to face second place Mountain View before finishing at home with first place North Stafford. After showing signs of improvement against Riverbend two weeks ago, the Hornets took it on the chin from Colonial Forge last week. The Wildcats come into their senior night off a bye week and went into that break with a quality win over Stafford the week before.
Key matchup: Orange’s secondary against Mountain View receiver Deshaun Hamilton. The junior has already drawn attention from Maryland, Virginia and Virginia Tech. While he’s every bit as dangerous on defense as offense, Hamilton has that big play ability and a confident quarterback in Bubby Morgan to make it a very long night if Orange can’t run stride-for-stride with the playmaker.
Who to watch: Hamilton. Outside of maybe North Stafford’s Bradon Ravenel, you won’t see a more dynamic threat in the passing attack in the Commonwealth District.
The line: Mountain View by 21. The Wildcats take no prisoners here.
Central Woodstock (3-4) at Madison (3-6) at 7:30 p.m.
The basics: After beating Manassas Park and William Monroe, Woodstock was in the driver’s seat in the Bull Run District but a loss to Clarke County last week sent them back a step. The Falcons need a win over the Mountaineers if they want to get a home playoff game. Madison’s playoff hopes are all but gone, ending a two-year run, and they’re going to want to finish their season at home on a bright note.
Key matchup: Madison’s rushing attack versus Central’s front seven. Whether it’s Maurice Gentry (who’s put together a nice season), L.J. Ward or Logan Carpenter, the Mountaineer running backs have to take it to the Falcons’ defensive front to wear them down. That wasn’t easy for Clarke to do last week, and it certainly won’t be easy for Madison.
Who to watch: Mountaineers wide receiver Travis Warren. Playing in his final high school football game, Warren will look to go out big with a fifth 100-yard plus receiving yards kind of game. He’s had 139 and 125 in back-to-back weeks against quality defenses in Monroe and Strasburg. Can he wrap his year up with another. We’ll bet on yes.
The line: Woodstock by 4. The Falcons defense won’t give up a lot here and they’ve got the kind of ground game on offense that Madison’s struggled with all year.
Manassas Park (5-2) at William Monroe (6-2) at 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Manasas Park can all but wrap up the Bull Run District championship with a win here. Conversely, with a win Monroe can set up a huge game with Clarke County to try and claim the BR crown. Both teams need to improve their playoff resume if they want to play at home in two weeks. The Cougars come in hot with a big win over Clarke last week, holding the Eagles to just eight points. Monroe put the heels to George Mason last week, scoring at least 56 points for the second straight game.
Key matchup: The Dragons’ Doug Sizemore and John Byrd play the running backs version of dueling banjos. Similar in style and ability, it’s going to be who can grind out the most yardage on the opposing defense that likely decides this game. Byrd runs out of a tight set, allowing Monroe to throw nine in the box. Sizemore runs out of a pro set with the threat of play action that should force Manassas to play more honestly against the pass.
Who to watch: Monroe quarterback Jack Morris. This game looks like a complete dog fight. If the sophomore can come up with a couple of big plays to either Jordan Gentry or Adam Weisenborn, that could be the difference. That’s been the Dragons’ difference-maker in close games so far.
The line: Monroe by 1. The Dragons are 2-1 in games decided by seven points or less. The Cougars are 0-2. We’ll take that successful close game experience and a crazed home crowd to push Monroe to a narrow win.
Albemarle (1-6) at Riverbend (1-6), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Like Albemarle, Riverbend has been taking its lumps in the Commonwealth this year, with both teams’ sole victory in the district coming against Orange County. Albemarle, who has been plagued by injuries, can get a win here and bolster the program going into Mike Alley’s second offseason at the helm.
Key matchup: Riverbend’s front seven takes on Albemarle’s Drake Bryant. Riverbend surrendered six rushing touchdowns last week to Massaponax, so the Patriots will likely go right at the Bears in the ground game which should mean a dose of Bryant, a scrappy, hard-nosed young runner.
Who to watch: Riverbend’s Brian Gaines. Two weeks ago Gaines exploded for 261 yards and four touchdowns against Orange County. Albemarle has to contain him to pull off the win.
The line: Albemarle by 7. The Patriots end their frustrating four-game slide with a confidence-building Commonwealth victory.
Fluvanna (2-7) at Western Albemarle (4-4), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Western Albemarle still could make the playoffs, and a victory at home against the Flucos would certainly help bolster that cause. In fact, if the season ended today, Western would be in. The Flucos, on the other hand, get a chance to play spoiler. Fluvanna has been in position to pull off shocker after shocker lately with strong starts but depth issues seem to have prevented the Flucos from maintaining that pace for four quarters. Can they finally piece it together against Western?
Key matchup: Fluvanna’s porous secondary takes on the quick strike passing game of the Warriors led by the quarterback-receiver connection of Kent Henry and Austin Ellis. Monticello gashed the Flucos on the ground last week, so odds are good Western will try and establish the run early. But the Warriors’ bread-and-butter is the short, controlled passing game and that’s going to be a tough combination for an already thin Fluvanna team to handle.
Who to watch: Fluvanna’s YaYa Anderson. The electric playmaker hasn’t been able to spark the Flucos to a lot of victories, but the opposition has to account for him on every play. Ask Monticello, who kicked to him on the opening kickoff and paid the price when he raced to a touchdown.
The line: Western Albemarle by 10. Flucos are just too beat up right now, but should definitely give the Warriors a challenge.
Correction (10.28.11, 11:32 a.m.): Edited to reflect the fact that Western and Monticello wouldn’t play if the season ended today, but the possibility remains.
Monticello (7-1) at Powhatan (6-2), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: With both teams unbeaten in Jefferson District play and having dispatched currently third place Louisa County, this one is for the title. While the Jefferson District championship doesn’t mean much when it comes to the playoffs, this clash of familiar opponents (the two programs have locked up regularly over the last few years in out-of-district play) certainly has all the makings of the game of the year so far. Both teams are led by star running backs in Powhatan’s Ray Brown and Monticello’s Isaac Robinson. The Indians boast a much more accomplished defensive unit that just a week ago held Louisa to seven points. Monticello has struggled to stop anyone, but did hold Fluvanna to just 10 points last week with the lone touchdown on an opening game kickoff return.
Key matchup: Monticello’s front seven goes toe-to-toe with Brown and the rest of the Powhatan offense. The Mustangs’ defense hasn’t faced an offense that packs as much punch as Powhatan all year, though Goochland has lit it up of late and Monticello held the Bulldogs to 25. Slowing down Powhatan will be a tall task on the road for the Mustangs who are giving up about 310 yards per game to opposing offenses.
Who to watch: Monticello’s Sam Patterson. In a game where both teams boast stout rushing attacks, the Mustangs’ matchup nightmare Patterson could be the difference maker. If nothing else, he should draw bracket coverage from a Powhatan safety, which could open things up for Nathan DiGregorio or another Monticello playmaker in the passing game.
The line: Monticello by 3. This one’s really a push, but the Mustangs have only been slowed down once this season on offense. That said, they haven’t faced many defenses quite like Powhatan.
Charlottesville (1-7) at Louisa (5-2), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Louisa may have struggled against a fired-up Powhatan squad on the road, but a quick trip inside the numbers suggests that that loss wasn’t as lopsided as the 35-7 score indicates. Louisa actually out-gained Powhatan on offense by about nine yards and Andre Mealy actually had a productive night with 93 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. The Lions are still on track to make the playoffs (currently ranked fifth in Region II) and the bad news for Charlottesville coming out of the bye week is that Louisa rarely loses two games in a row. The last time they did, this year’s seniors were freshmen.
Key matchup: Charlottesville’s linebackers try to matchup with the single wing. The Black Knights will have to be disciplined, responsibility football against the single wing that lulls defenses to sleep before unleashing a misdirection play to the backside, like a sweep or reverse to wideout Peanut Johnson.
Who to watch: Louisa’s Lamond Price. Price was in on 13 tackles against Powhatan last week. If he can bring the same nose for the ball tonight, it’s going to be tough for the Black Knights to move the ball.
The line: Louisa by 14. The Lions bounce back at home.
Benedictine (5-3) at Fork Union (3-5) Saturday, at 1 p.m.
The basics: The Blue Devils picked up that must-win game last week against Collegiate, and did so with ease. To stay in the playoff hunt they have to beat a Cadets team that looked like one of VISAA Division 1’s finest until falling to Bishop Ireton and Midlothian in back-to-back weeks.
Key matchup: Benedictine’s secondary versus FUMA wide receiver D.J. Randle El. We keep coming back to this, because in all honesty, with the exception of the Goochland game in September, when the senior wide out has a big game, his team wins. The Cadets have to blanket him in coverage or put pressure on quarterback Christian Hackenberg or both to keep Fork Union from putting up big points on the board.
Who to watch: Fork Union defensive end Conlan Cassidy. The senior has put together an impressive season, averaging 8.5 tackles and a half sack per game. The Blue Devils will need him to apply pressure to Cadets quarterback David Geary because Benedictine likes to whip the ball around the field. Greary is also a running threat, so Cassidy can’t over commit.
The line: Benedictine by 3. The Cadets three losses are to top-quality teams and this team is 4-1 on the road so far.
St. Anne’s-Belfield (4-4) at Christchurch (7-0) Saturday, at 2 p.m.
The basics: This is a potential playoff preview. The Saints are still scrapping for a spot in the postseason while the Seahorses have been the top-ranked team in VISAA Division 2 for well over a month and the clear front runners to take this year’s state title. STAB comes into the meeting winners of two straight with a drubbing of Covenant last week. Christchurch did the same to Trinity Episcopal.
Key matchup: The Saints’ rush defense against the Seahorses’ offensive line. For three straight weeks Christchurch has rushed for at least 300 yards. It’s next to impossible to win a game giving up that much on the ground. STAB has to find a way to get in the backfield and get hands on running backs Jordan Wallace and Pat Young, both of whom are averaging more than eight yards per carry.
Who to watch: STAB linebackers Antione Curry and Shane Palmateer. The duo are in a tight race for the team lead in tackles and coach John Blake is going to need a big game from both to slow down the Seahorses’ physical offense.
The line: Christchurch by 4. The Saints had the Seahorses number last year. But that was last year and Christchurch has scored 30 or more in every game this year and never won by less than 18 so far.
St. Christopher’s (7-1) at Woodberry Forest (5-2), 2 p.m., Saturday
The basics: This should be a good one. Woodberry has finally found its groove on offense, largely by getting back to basics and correcting a number of fundamental issues via a sort of team-wide reset recently. Heys McMath is looking like the kind of field general that he showed flashes of last season and is settling into the role as the Tigers’ lone signal-caller. St. Chris is on a three-game win streak with the squad’s lone loss of the season coming October 1 against Benedictine in a four-overtime 48-45 barnburner.
Key matchup: The St. Chris offensive line takes on Woodberry’s tenacious, relentless front. Protecting standout sophomore quarterback Giles Thompson will be the Saints’ top priority, but against a Tigers defense that can bring pressure from all points — including directly up the middle with tackle Rogers Clark — that’s easier said than done. Clark has 14 quarterback hurries on the season and 14 sacks.
Who to watch: Woodberry’s Cameron Wooster. In a blowout win over Kiski Prep last Saturday, Wooster forced three fumbles. Blocking both Wooster and Clark is a near impossible task for any offensive line and the attention they draw make big performances by linebackers Greer Martini, Nate Ripper and Doug Randolph possible.
The line: Woodberry Forest by 3. This one should come down to the wire with St. Chris playing a high level right now and the Tigers also picking up steam.
Atlantic Shores (4-4) at Blue Ridge (4-3), 2 p.m., Saturday
The basics: Blue Ridge is currently holding onto a Division 2 playoff spot, but could use a win here after an impressive 39-0 victory over Virginia Episcopal last week. Atlantic Shores hasn’t found consistent footing all season but quarterback Garfield Christian is a superior athlete who could hurt the Barons if he gets into space.
Key matchup: Atlantic Shores’ secondary takes on suddenly hot Barons quarterback Lance Gray. Gray was 8 for 14 against VES for 110 yards and three touchdowns. If Atlantic Shores just sits back and lets Gray operate it could be in trouble.
Who to watch: Blue Ridge’s Brandon Rose. Rose had eight tackles against VES and if he can stay consistent on defense, the Barons will be able to contain Atlantic Shores.
The line: Blue Ridge by 3. Barons keep it rolling before clashing with archrival STAB next week.
