Group 4A Semifinals, Lafayette (12-1) at Louisa County (13-0), 2 p.m.
The basics: For the first time since 2014 a Jefferson District team is in the state final four. For the first time since 2007 a Jefferson District squad is hosting a state final four game. For the first time since 2006 the Lions are hosting a game in the final, the only previous time they’ve done so. There are a lot of first-in-a-long-times in this meeting, and regardless of the outcome, there’s one last-ever too — win or lose, this will be the last time that Louisa’s class of 2018 and its coach, Mark Fischer, will play in front of its home crowd. It’s going to be a packed house on Saturday. Get there real early and carpool unless you feel like sitting through a whole lot of traffic and parking and then walking a considerable distance. The Lions are coming off an impressive showing against a Dinwiddie team that beat Lafayette last year in the playoffs. The Rams put together a strong defensive showing against King’s Fork last week to set up this matchup in the Jungle. Layfayette’s only loss came in week one against Norcom, a Group 3A school that was the second seed in the Region 3A bracket yet one that fell to the seventh seed, Lakeland, oddly enough. It’s hard to run transitive properties on this one, but if you’re the Lions and you’ve beaten two unbeaten squads on the road in consecutive weeks, a home game against a team that’s fallen once already this season sounds pretty good. You know there’s a very good chance that this is going to be a great game if both teams play to their potential.
Key matchup: The Lions offensive line takes on a vaunted Rams defensive front seven. Lafayette has surrendered more than two touchdowns just once this year, and that was a 48-17 win in the first round of the playoffs. This unit has held teams to seven or less points in nine games this year. Louisa has faced some great defenses, particularly of late, but none quite this good. Conversely, the Lions worst offensive showing was a turnover-riddled 22-8 win over Western Albemarle in week five back at the end of September. Since then, the point totals have been 40, 62, 62, 62, 53, 35 and 38. Something has to give here and it’s going to happen in the trenches. It’s going to be up to Louisa linemen Tony Thurston, Robert Guinn, Dustin Matney and the gang to find a way to open holes in the running game against a defensive front led by senior defensive end Armonii Burden and linebacker Jack Erwin. If the Lions can put up 200 yards on the ground, something they’ve done every week of the season, they’re going to be in great shape. They’ve put up 300-plus in most games so far, including 319 last week against Dinwiddie. If they hit that total, barring some turnover laden catastrophe, they’re going to be heading to the state title game. But that’s going to be quite the challenge against a group that rivals their size, athleticism and physicality.
Who to watch: Louisa quarterback Malik Bell. For starters, he’s the wild card in this game. Should he get the playcall from Fischer and offensive coordinator Will Patrick to put the ball in the air, it’s going to matter, whether it’s a completion, incompletion, a scramble or a turnover. Each passing play for the Lions is a potential drive maker or drive staller, especially against a run defense this good. But what’s most impressive about Bell right now is his timely runs. He has three 60-yard plus touchdown runs in three playoff games so far. Last week’s 60-yard run was first blood drawn against Dinwiddie. The previous two which were longer (79 and 80) came when Louisa was trailing. The bottom line is that Louisa has the depth between Job Whalen, Raquan Jones, Jarrett Hunter, David Sharpe and Matt West to be good without Bell having an incredible game. But if Bell keeps playing like he has these last three weeks, on this different plane than what still was a fantastic regular season, well, nobody has shown that they can slow down this offense. Louisa’s defense kind of stole the show in the regular season. The offense, most of which is made up of the same players, has hit a groove since the second half of the playoff opener against Courtland that opposing defense simply have been baffled to slow down.
The line: Louisa by 1. After Monacan and Dinwiddie wins on the road, it’s hard not to like the Lions at home one last time in the Mark Fischer era. But it’s going to be a slugfest. This group wouldn’t want it any other way either.
