Virginia Episcopal (4-1) vs. Covenant (3-3), 7 p.m. Thursday at Monticello High
The basics: Covenant is in the midst of a two-game slide and needs to snap out of it quickly if they want a chance to make the playoffs in a loaded Division III. A win against VES would vault the Eagles right back into the playoff picture after losses to Blue Ridge and Norfolk Academy. But the offense, which struggled to get going early and couldn’t rally against the Bulldogs last week, has to be more productive. That’ll start with the run game which struggled against an attacking Blue Ridge defense a couple of weeks ago.
Key matchup: Covenant’s front seven takes on Ronnie Stringfield. VES’s star running back is tough to bring down and a big reason that the Bishops are 4-1. The Eagles will have to buckle up and get in attack mode on defense after getting gashed two weeks ago on the ground by Blue Ridge.
Who to watch: Covenant’s Spencer Godine. The Eagles desperately need someone to stretch the defense on the boundary and get a defender or two out of the box so the run game can get back to its productivity from a few weeks ago. Godine showed some ability to do just that against Norfolk Academy. The Eagles would be wise to get him involved early.
The line: Virginia Episcopal by 3. Bishops seemed primed to push the Eagles’ losing streak to three, but playing under the lights at Monticello might play to Covenant’s favor. A couple of their key players, Drew and Jay Gaffney, have been there before.
Landon, Maryland (1-3) at Woodberry (4-1), 4 p.m.
The basics: The Bears fell last week to Episcopal 30-21 while the Tigers picked up a huge road win against Collegiate. The victory puts Woodberry on an express route to compete with St. Christopher’s next week in what more than likely will serve as the defacto Prep League championship game. The Tigers get a week to work things out before the collision course with the Saints against an old school Landon squad that plays quality defense and runs the ball effectively. In some ways, the Tigers are facing a mirror of an opponent, albeit with Woodberry having more success this season.
Key matchup: Landon’s front seven takes on the Tigers’ rushing duo of HT Minor and James Hewell. This is the heart of this Woodberry offense as Lindell Stone and Christian Zaytoun takes snaps at quarterback filling in for an injured Hunter Ethridge, who apparently picked up the clipboard and aided in helping the Tigers coaching staff against Collegiate. While Minor is the homerun threat for the Tigers, Hewell is a throwback at running back who grinds out his yards the old fashioned way at the line of scrimmage, rarely taking a loss. The Bears can’t let Minor get to the next level or it’ll be a quick six and they can’t let Hewell move the chains and keep this ever-improving defense (one that was stout already when the season began) on the sidelines staying fresh.
Who to watch: Tigers cornerback and special teamer Nathaniel Tyrell. He’s been the x-factor in a lot of games with his ability to produce offense from a defensive standpoint in the interception return game, and then also on punts and kick offs. He’s stronger than he looks and he’s got wheels. One or two big plays from him can be a back-breaker.
The line: Woodberry by 7. The Tigers are on a roll here and they’ve played arguably two of the best teams in the state already in Liberty Christian and Collegiate. They can’t look ahead to St. Christopher’s, but they get a chance to play with some different wrinkles on both sides of the ball heading into it.
Orange County (1-4) at Charlottesville (2-3), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Kudos to the Hornets and first year coach Keita Malloy on picking up their first win of the year with a 49-25 win over Fluvanna last week. The Hornets hit the road again heading to play a Charlottesville team coming off a 54-16 loss at Monticello. These teams are awfully similar in terms of depth at the skill positions. Don’t be surprised by a busy night on the scoreboard.
Key matchup: Charlottesville’s front seven takes on offensive weapon Isaiah Ferguson. The Black Knights can’t let Orange control the clock with its ground game. That’s what happened in back-to-back losses against Louisa and Monticello. The Hornets’ senior is coming off a 198-yard, three-touchdown game against the Flucos. While the Black Knights were effective against the Monticello run game in the first quarter, the latter three saw them get worn down with a 1-2 punch of Kyree Koonce and TJ Tillery. Ferguson and teammate Mikael Wallace will be eager to show they’re a considerable 1-2 punch as well. Slowing down Ferguson should be priority number one for this CHS defense right now.
Who to watch: The quarterbacks, Charlottesville’s Chris Thurston and Orange’s Garrett Johnson. Which of these two connects for the most yards passing could well be the tipping point. While Johnson is the more polished passer, Thurston is one of the most gifted runners in this area and has a bigtime jumpball threat in Leon Strauss. We’ll argue that with the points these two defenses have surrendered so far, the passing game will be the difference here.
The line: Charlottesville by 1. We’ll give them the nod at home, but this should be a track meet and could well come down to the last second.
Monticello (5-0) at Fluvanna County (0-5), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: Rolling to a 54-16 win over Charlottesville was a bit bittersweet for the Mustangs as their early Christmas present, transfer Kyree Koonce is now sidelined for the season after getting hit with a significant leg injury in the fourth quarter. But all that does is slightly simplfy the plan for the Flucos who are coming off a loss to Orange, 49-25. Fluvanna is going to have to deal with a lot of TJ Tillery and Tyler Wagner now and that’s not going to be easy in addition to dealing with the depth the Mustangs have at receiver.
Key matchup: The Flucos secondary take on Mustangs Josh Malm and Alex McNair. It’s going to take one-on-one coverage and just one safety help to slow these two targets down for Monticello quarterback James St. Hill. To have a fighting chance against the Mustangs, the Flucos have to slow Tillery down up front and that’s going to take at least eight in the box, if not nine. So with this secondary playing pretty much on islands, they’re going to have to be ready for when Monticello decides to stretch the field with Malm who’s deceptively fast with sure hands and McNair who’s a mismatch nightmare given his size.
Who to watch: Tillery. With Koonce going down, don’t be surprised if the Mustangs jump in the Delorian and head back to the 2012 rushing attack. The senior back looked like his old self against Charlottesville after battling an early season injury. If last week wasn’t his welcome back party, this could well be after the Flucos gave up more than 300 yards on the ground last week to Orange.
The line: Monticello by 17. The Mustangs’ depth on offense is still better than just about everyone in JD even without Koonce. And that injury might have put a chip on this team’s shoulder.
William Monroe (1-4) at Central Woodstock (4-1) , 7 p.m.
The basics: The Falcons, just about every coach’s preseason favorite to win the Bull Run District come into Stanardsville after a 39-0 beating on the road against Manassas Park. The Dragons are coming off a clutch win, albeit their first of the year, against Strasburg, 42-34. This Monroe offense has shown glimpses of big things, but it finally came through from start to finish last week. It’ll need to be on point against Central as last week’s 39 points was the season low for the Falcons. There’s only one way to win this game for the Dragons and that’s to pile up the points.
Key matchup: Monroe’s secondary versus Central wide out Tommy Caison. He and quarterback Hayden Bauserman have provided the knock out punch so many times this year as defenses try and deal with this impressive offensive line and the back cruising behind it, Daniel Molina. Before the Dragons can think about honing in on the unit up front, they’ll have to be confident they have the right coverages to either blanket Caison or confuse Bauserman. That’s been hard for everyone so far, including Spotswood who handed Woodstock it’s only loss of the year in a 49-48 barn burner. Last week the Falcons were balanced with the passing attack flourishing along with Molina. It seems a given at this point that this offensive line is going to produce a 100-yard back in every game, making sure Woodstock doesn’t have a 100-yard receiver will be key to making sure this game is more of a shootout than a runaway.
Who to watch: Monroe’s Tylek Burley. The running back had a big day last week against the Rams and the Dragons will need him to have his play-making ability on the edge in addition to piling up first downs to keep this vaunted Falcons offense from having the ball in its hands as much as possible. Burley’s been a big addition to this backfield so far. As we said before, this Monroe offense can score, it’s just going to need a lot of it this week and Burley will be a big factor there.
The line: Woodstock by 10. Even if you factor in the loss to Spotswood, the Falcons margin of victory is still 35 points per game. This is a tough one for the Dragons, and really, for the entire Bull Run right now.
Fork Union (1-4) at Liberty Christian (4-1), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Blue Devils faced one of the best in the state last week in a loss to St. Christopher’s, 42-14. Their reward is to now face the top VISAA Division 1 program coming off a bye after the Bulldogs fell to Charlotte Christian 32-31. This is last year’s state championship rematch but while there’s a lot of familiar faces on the LCA sidelines, Fork Union is almost completely revamped.
Key matchup: Fork Union’s secondary takes on BJ Farrow. There might not be a better wide receiver in the state as Farrow has 512 yards and seven touchdowns already in addition to his abilities in the return game. The Blue Devils have to double cover Farrow in one way or another as he’s got speed, size, great ups and amazing hands. While this was a running team last year, the passing attack is the deadly part of this Bulldogs offense so far.
Who to watch: FUMA running back Rashon Torrence. He’s the area’s leading rusher with 845 yards already. He’ll be the key here as the Blue Devils will likely look to dominate the time of possession with their all-purpose running back. LCA’s defense has surrendered yardage up so far in defensively and so the Blue Devils strength in this area is all the more important. If Torrence has a big game, Fork Union has a chance to make this a close game.
The line: LCA by 10. The Bulldogs behind Farrow and the added rest from a bye week, not to mention playing at home stay atop the VISAA standings.
Chatham (4-2) at Nelson County (0-5), 7 p.m.
The basics: The Cavaliers fell pretty hard last week to Dan River, and the Governors know full well how that felt. Nelson had a week to recoup after its 61-0 loss to that same Wildcats team. It will be interesting to see what kind of changes or improvements the Governors made after the bye week, but they have their hands full here with Chatham. Even their losses, the Cavaliers offense has been able to put up some points and in their wins — they had 176 points in their first three games of the year.
Key matchup: Nelson’s front four takes on Chatham quarterback Rod Taylor. The Cavaliers’ singal caller can whip it around the field and the Governors have to keep him from setting up shop in the pocket. While good play in the seconday against this deep receiving corps would help greatly, the best way to ensure a good showing from the secondary is a great pass rush. Nelson has to get off the ball up front and get in Taylor’s face.
Who to watch: Chatham running back Shy Smith. He’s the wildcard here. If the Governors can make sure he doesn’t slip out of the backfield and make a difference in the passing game that’ll be huge. Keeping him from the edge in the ground game will be the other challenge. But if stopping Taylor is the key, keeping tabs on Smith is a close second.
The line: Chatham by 7. Nelson should look and feel better after the bye, but this isn’t an easy matchup with all the tools the Cavaliers have on offense.
St. Anne’s (1-5) at Isle of Wight (4-2), 7 p.m.
The basics: The long wait is over. St. Anne’s-Belfield’s long losing streak ended with a victory over a solid North Cross team where the Saints held on to an early lead despite some mistakes down the stretch. No matter what it looked like, the Saints had to be thrilled just to get over the hump and into the win column. Now comes the task of making it two-in-a-row. The Saints get an excellent change against an Isle of Wight team that is coming off a loss to Broadwater Academy.
Key matchup: Isle of Wight’s special teams take on the Saints. STAB coach John Blake is as unpredictable as they come. Look for the Saints to try and keep their momentum going with a big play on special teams.
Who to watch: STAB’s Kareem Johnson. Johnson hauled in three touchdowns at wideout last week, one from Jalen Harrison and two more from Lee Parkhill. Going back to the talented pass catcher early and often would be wise for the Saints against an Isle of Wight squad that looked vulnerable against the pass against Broadwater last week, surrendering 350 yards through the air. Look for an aerial assault from the Saints.
The line: STAB by 3. Saints struggled in first half of 2013, but the win over a good North Cross squad proved they may be tough to handle the rest of the way.
Albemarle (2-3) at Powhatan (4-1), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: A team can respond one of two ways to the stomach punch that Albemarle absorbed last week at the end of regulation against Western Albemarle. They can suffer a hangover and struggle the next week or they can come back angrier and more determined. The way Albemarle’s defense has played all year and the way the offense played Friday, odds are good they’re coming back refocused. They’ll need it too because it won’t be any easy task against Powhatan at the Indians’ house. They’ll face a power run attack from Powhatan led by Logan Allen and L.J. Jackson and an opportunistic defense that scored a touchdown against Louisa last week in a 26-14 win.
Key matchup: Albemarle’s defense takes on Powhatan’s Allen. It’s a unique challenge for the Patriots to go from matching up against Western’s wide open attack to taking on the run-heavy Indians. Allen is a load to bring down and Albemarle will have its hands full, how well they adjust their mindset will be critical to the Pats’ success.
Who to watch: Albemarle’s Dominique Talley. Talley’s rugged, won’t-be-denied performance against Western Albemarle last week was inspiring. Talley has shown flashes of that potential before, as early as two years ago when he was still at Covenant. But it all came together last week on one of the biggest stages the Patriots will play on this year. 186 yards on 23 carries at a clip of 8.1 per carry including his 73-yard touchdown sprint. Does he have an encore performance ready against the Indians who looked susceptible to the run against Monticello?
The line: Albemarle by 1. The Patriots are surely emotionally spent after last week, but they should have enough firepower to bounce back against the Indians.
Louisa County (2-3) at Western Albemarle (5-0), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: It’d be easy to expect a let down game for Western Albemarle this week against Louisa County after last week’s incredible clash with Albemarle that surely took a lot out of the Warriors. The letdown game alert is particularly high because the Lions are uniquely suited to give the Warriors problems with a power run game and a speedy defense and Louisa is much better than their 2-3 record as two of the losses came against really solid squads and the King George loss came under suspect conditions down the stretch. But the Warriors have every reason to get fired up for this one because the Lions were the lone squad to beat Western during the regular season last season, ending a nine-game win streak in Crozet. This one should be a battle.
Key matchup: Western’s linebackers take on the Louisa run game. Deion Johnson, Markel Groomes, Trey Cherry…it seems like every week someone new is setting the pace for the Lions’ run game. Last week Johnson had the hot hand and rolled to 180 yards on 28 touches. Albemarle exposed the Warriors’ linebackers in particular with Dominque Talley and Kevin McCarthy running through tackle attempts all day as the Patriots averaged 7.9 yards per carry as a team.
Who to watch: Western wideout Burks Summers. While Steven Hearn and Kent Henry provided the final heroics against Albemarle, if not for Summers’ performance they might not even get into that position. Summers had four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown, including a key catch on the 1-minute drill that led to Hearn’s game-winning catch. Look for Summers’ role to continue to expand as defense’s try to lock down on Chase Stokes, Nic Drapanas and Hearn, much as Hearn’s own targets expanded last season as Henry gained confidence in him.
The line: Western Albemarle by 10. The Warriors may have their hands full here, but they’ve proven to be up to the task so far this season.
Clarke County (5-0) at Madison County (2-3), 7:30 p.m.
The basics: The Mountaineers took a step backward last week in a loss to George Mason in a game that indicated just how valuable James Graves has become to the Mountaineers at quarterback. The defense struggled too, surrendering 33 points to Mason. Now the Mountaineers will try and bounce back Friday against an unbeaten Clarke team that beat Warren County 28-14 last week. Clarke looked vulnerable two weeks ago against a Strasburg squad that lost to William Monroe last week, so this is far from a slam dunk for the Eagles even if Graves is out of the lineup again.
Key matchup: Madison County’s linebackers take on Clarke single wing quarterback Sean McDonald. The dual threat had a 31-yard touchdown run against Strasburg two weeks ago and if he gets loose could give Madison problems.
Who to watch: Madison’s Andrew Allee. When you’re facing the single wing, it’s all about how the middle linebackers react to the action in the backfield. Allee has a tall task ahead, but since he’s averaging around six tackles he should be up for the job.
The line: Clarke by 3. Edge goes to Clarke based on the record, but if the Mountaineers bounce back, it won’t be easy for the Eagles to leave with a win.
Buckingham (3-2) at Central Lunenburg (7-0), 7 p.m.
The basics: Suddenly the James River District is far from a two-team race. Central Lunenburg has established that the Chargers are likely the team to beat this year after outgunning Goochland at home last week. Buckingham bounced back nicely from a loss to Goochland two weeks ago to pound Randolph-Henry and get back above .500. Now the question becomes whether the Knights can pick up a signature win on the season and help themselves earn a more favorable spot in the playoffs. Beating Central would fit both bills.
Key matchup: Buckingham’s front seven takes on the Central running game led by Dajour Smith. Smith piled up 305 yards on 36 touches last week against Goochland, so it’s a safe bet who’s getting the majority of the touches against Buckingham. The Knights are going to have load up against Smith, but look out for Tyrek Foster too. He scored four touchdowns on the ground against the Bulldogs last week too as part of a 435-yard effort on the ground game.
Who to watch: Buckingham’s Kenneth Johnson. The best defense against Smith may be for the Knights to continued to feed the beast that is Kenneth Johnson. Now No. 2 in the area in rushing with 800 yards already on the season in just five games. The guy is averaging an incredible 9.1 yards per carry as an every down back and has scored 14 touchdowns. Expect a heavy dose of Johnson again Friday.
The line: Central by 10. The Chargers appear to be one of the teams to beat in Group 1A after winning a shootout with Goochland last week and getting it done on the road is a lot to ask of the Knights against a team running this well.
Blue Ridge (2-3) at Trinity Episcopal (2-4), Saturday 2 p.m.
The basics: The Barons are picking up some steam right now and with the run-game combination of P.J. White and Torian Pegram getting the job done while Eric Davis stretches the defense at wideout, the Barons could be a lot to handle down the stretch. Beating Trinity Episcopal won’t be easy though, particularly on the road. Look for Blue Ridge to let the ground game with White and Pegram do the talking behind that big, rugged offensive line. The Barons have a formula and after blowing out Christchurch there’s no reason to deviate right now.
Key matchup: Blue Ridge linebackers Julian Edelman and Ryan Etheridge take on Abraham Ferrell-Logan. Ferrell-Logan is a power back who can chew up yards and also throws the ball a little for the Titans. Keeping an eye on the playmaker will be key to slowing down Trinity.
Who to watch: Blue Ridge’s Afana Offor. Offor caught his first two touchdowns of his career Friday against Christchurch. If he can keep it going he’d give the Barons yet another dimension in the passing game. He’s averaging 16 yards per catch right now.
The line: Blue Ridge by 1. It won’t be easy but if the Barons’ run game gets things going again, there aren’t many people left on the Blue Ridge schedule who can slow them down.
